Will Big Ben falter in the second round, too?

As the No. 2 seed and No. 8 in the world, Ben Shelton is one of the top favorites at the 2026 Washington Open, where he has reached the semifinals in each of the past two years. However, the 2026 season—in which the 23-year-old won three tournaments but was knocked out in the second round at the French Open and even in the first round at Wimbledon—has been marked by significant ups and downs. Accordingly, it wouldn’t come as a complete surprise if a prediction of another early exit for “Big Ben” in the Ugo Humbert vs. Ben Shelton match were to come true. Even in his opening match against Martin Damm (ATP 104), “The Mountain” ultimately managed only a 2-1 victory.

Their head-to-head record shows only a clean 3-0 victory for the American, dating back to the 2026 Australian Open. But even in that match, nearly everything for both players hinged on their serves. Considering that the Frenchman held nine of his ten service games in the first round in Washington, while Big Ben managed just 37 percent on return points, this could be another close match. The prediction that this rematch between Ugo Humbert and Ben Shelton will go the full three sets offers us great value.

Ugo Humbert – Ben Shelton Head-to-Head Record

Head-to-Head: 0:1

At the 2026 Australian Open, the first and only meeting between the two players to date took place right in the first round. After Ugo Humbert got off to an extremely rough start, the next two sets—in which both players were nearly flawless on their own serves—were decided in tiebreaks. Ben Shelton, who kept his composure better on both occasions, ultimately won in straight sets, 3–0 (6–3, 7–6, 7–6).

Ugo Humbert – Ben Shelton Prediction

Both players faced an American qualifier in their opening match. While Ugo Humbert made almost no mistakes and passed the tough test not only confidently but also without wasting unnecessary energy, the inconsistent Ben Shelton once again struggled.

Although the 23-year-old won three singles titles in the 2026 season and is firmly established in the top 10 of the ATP world rankings, he has repeatedly been eliminated early from tournaments, which is why he himself recently described the current season as a “weird season.”

Looking ahead to the Australian Open matchup between the two players, we believe the American home favorite is the more likely winner overall. Nevertheless, the Frenchman has what it takes to make life very difficult for Big Ben.

It’s clear that The Mountain will try to apply pressure with his explosive forehand and powerful serve. This will certainly earn him plenty of free points. And yet, his French opponent, being a left-hander, is a difficult player to face, especially since the man from Metz possesses a high level of tactical understanding and repeatedly disrupts the rhythm with well-placed slices. Against this backdrop, we expect a very close match that has plenty of potential to go the full distance of three sets.