Will the Clippers win Game 7?
Here we are – the first Game 7 of this year’s NBA playoffs in our Nuggets vs. Clippers tip. And it couldn’t be more evenly matched, both in terms of the odds and the statistics so far. It’s so close that both teams even have the same 3-point shooting percentage (38.8%).
While Denver has a slight lead in rebounds, the Clippers have scored 23 more points in the series so far. However, four of the six previous games were decided by six points or less, so we expect another thriller on Saturday night.
We actually see Los Angeles with a slight advantage. On the one hand, they have been slightly more efficient on offense so far, and on the other hand, they are coming into the game with the momentum of their Game 6 victory. James Harden’s strong performance on Thursday should also give them confidence.
He was often considered a choker in the playoffs, but he proved the opposite with this performance. Our prediction for Denver vs. Los Angeles is therefore an away win for the Clippers, who could win a playoff series for the first time since 2021.
Denver Nuggets – Statistics & current form
The Nuggets have squandered their first match point. However, they still have one left, and this time they have home-court advantage. That has been a slight advantage in the series so far, but not as big as expected. They lost one of their three home games and had to go into overtime in another.
An elimination would be symptomatic of the wild last few weeks in Mile High City, which culminated just a few weeks ago in the dismissal of general manager Calvin Booth and head coach Michael Malone. A good preparation for the postseason certainly looks different.
Denver Nuggets the underdogs at home
As a result, they were considered the underdogs by the bookmakers in this matchup and still are today – even for this Game 7. It’s not entirely incomprehensible, as the Clippers have looked a little more confident in the series so far and more stable defensively.
The Nuggets have also allowed 3.4 points and a higher field goal percentage (46.6% to 48.6%) in the series so far. Without Aaron Gordon’s crazy buzzer-beater dunk five days ago, the series might even be over already.
We therefore see the 50:50 duel as more of a 60:40 in favor of the Clippers. That, in turn, makes the odds for Nuggets vs. Clippers interesting again for Los Angeles. They are almost reaching the 2 odds mark – a clear value tip for us.
Key Players:
- PG: Jamal Murray
- SG: Christian Braun
- SF: Aaron Gordon
- PF: Michael Porter Jr.
- C: Nikola Jokic
LA Clippers – Statistics & current form
The Clippers need a strong James Harden. As good as Kawhi Leonard’s streak is, he needs support and scoring power, especially on offense. Harden delivered that on Thursday night, and we see positive signs again for Saturday night.
Nicolas Batum’s high shooting percentage from outside (at least 40% in 4 of 6 games) is helping the entire team a lot. This creates enough spacing for Harden and Leonard to benefit. In addition, the team defense against Jokic in this series has been top-notch.
Clippers’ defense stands out
The Clippers’ defense rating was already 5.7 points better than Denver’s in the regular season, and this trend is continuing in the playoffs. They are even managing to hold Nikola Jokic to an average of 25.3 points. By comparison, he scored 29.6 points per game in the regular season.
That is likely to be their advantage in Game 7. In decisive games, the team that can take the other team’s star player out of the game usually wins. Only an outstanding performance by Jamal Murray, as in Game 5 (43 points), could throw a spanner in the works.
But he has only managed such a performance once. So, in our opinion, betting on the Clippers is the more promising option for Denver against LA – despite the home advantage of Jokic, Gordon, and Co.
Key Players:
- PG: Kris Dunn
- SG: James Harden
- SF: Kawhi Leonard
- PF: Norman Powell
- C: Ivica Zubac
Denver Nuggets – LA Clippers Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
There is probably no more evenly matched series this year, and that has been the case throughout the entire season. The regular season ended with a 2-2 tie, and the playoffs are currently tied at 3-3. That’s exactly how playoff series should be.
Why we still see the Clippers as having the advantage is because of their defense and their better 1-2-3 punch with Leonard, Harden, and Zubac. The Nuggets are still too often relying on Jokic alone, especially since Jamal Murray is no longer in the form he was in previous years.
We also find significantly more points to favor the Clippers in Denver against LA. In addition, our prediction for Nuggets vs. Clippers is that the over points will also be broken. At 204.5, they are set very low, with an average of 215.2 points so far in this series.
Denver Nuggets – LA Clippers Tip
It would hardly surprise anyone if this Game 7 went into overtime. However, if one team is likely to pull away in regulation time, it is the Clippers with their convincing defense and more options in offense.
In this respect, a bet on LA is our top option for Nuggets vs. Clippers. We don’t even need a handicap for strong odds due to the balanced favorite status. We also see a combination with over points as extremely good value here.
Player bets are also an alternative. The 21.5 points set for James Harden could be reached on Saturday, as could the 16.5 for Ivica Zubac. We would be more cautious with player bets on the Nuggets side, as no one has been able to impress with consistency so far.