Will the Charlotte heatwave set the pace?

The longer the Club World Cup in the USA lasts, the greater the interest here at home. However, as the first ever FIFA Club World Cup progresses, critical voices are also growing about the sometimes borderline conditions on the East Coast. Extreme heat and dull pitches are making life difficult for the well-trained professionals. For Saturday evening’s round of 16 match between Benfica Lisbon and Chelsea, the outcome is likely to depend heavily on which team copes better with the conditions in Charlotte, North Carolina, which are rather unfamiliar for Europeans.

The Portuguese may even have a slight advantage in this respect, as they already had to prove their skills on Tuesday against FC Bayern at the same venue, the Bank of America Stadium. In the end, they even managed a surprising 1-0 victory, which saw Bruno Lage’s team finish top of Group C and advance to the round of 16. Although they now face a second-placed team from the group stage, the German bookmakers are leaning towards a win for Chelsea ahead of the match between Benfica Lisbon and Chelsea.

This assessment is also supported by the odds on the three-way market. A win for the Blues will bring in 1.90 at the top. If the supposed underdogs from the Portuguese capital come out on top after 90 minutes, there is a maximum of 3.90 to be had. If the match goes into extra time or penalties, you can bet on Benfica Lisbon and Chelsea at odds of 7.00 and 6.50 respectively in the Bet365 app ahead of the do-or-die clash.

Benfica Lisbon – Statistics & current form

Few experts would have predicted before the start of the Club World Cup that Benfica Lisbon would emerge from Group C as winners ahead of FC Bayern Munich. At first, it didn’t look like it would happen, as the Portuguese top club found themselves 2-0 down after 30 minutes in their opening match against Boca Juniors and had major problems with the Argentinians’ tough approach. However, because they managed to fight back to a 2-2 draw in that match and then beat Auckland City (6-0) and the German record champions (1-0), the “Águias” marched into the round of 16 as group winners.

This circumstance brings with it a not insignificant advantage, because unlike the second-placed team in Group C, Benfica will not have to travel before their first knockout game and will be able to play in Charlotte again. The extreme heat will once again play a decisive role on Saturday afternoon at 4:00 p.m. local time. Temperatures well above 30 degrees Celsius are forecast, and it is likely to be even warmer on the unfamiliar and very dull artificial turf.

Benfica advances to the round of 16 with luck and skill, but without brilliance

Judging by the impressions from the Portuguese runners-up’s match against the German record champions, it seems only natural to predict a low-scoring game between Benfica Lisbon and Chelsea. This is especially true given that the knockout stages are now beginning, where caution and risk minimization are once again of paramount importance. In addition to the classic under 2.5 bet, I think a 0-0 score after 45 minutes is also high on the value scale. If no goals are scored before the break, Interwetten is offering a whopping 3.15 as the top odds for a corresponding bet, which is a great incentive to take a closer look at Interwetten’s free bets.

Although the Eagles from Lisbon, who were beaten by arch-rivals Sporting in both the league and cup finals last season, have not conceded a goal in 240 minutes, I would refrain from betting on the Portuguese side to progress in the round of 16 between Benfica Lisbon and Chelsea. Despite collecting seven points, Lage’s team only impressed in flashes and, in the end, benefited primarily from the Bundesliga side’s profligacy in front of goal after the break against Bayern, for example. For me, the Scarlet Reds are therefore rightly considered underdogs.

Predicted line-up for Benfica Lisbon:
Trubin – Dahl, Otamendi, Silva, Aursnes – Sanches, Barreiro – Schjelderup, Prestianni, Di Maria – Pavlidis

Chelsea – Statistics & current form

The 2024/25 season went better than expected for Chelsea Football Club. After a huge squad overhaul, which was also accompanied by a change of coach, it was not necessarily foreseeable that the Londoners would qualify directly for the Champions League group stage via the Premier League. With an impressive 69 points from 38 games, they ultimately finished fourth in the final standings, which was topped off with victory in the Conference League. Coach Enzo Maresca has done a magnificent job and is looking forward to competing against Europe’s best teams in the Champions League in 2025/26.

The Italian is currently getting a small taste of what is to come at the Club World Cup. With their place in the round of 16 secured, the first small milestone has been reached, although the Blues naturally want to go (much) further in the tournament. With this in mind, CFC coach Maresca made an economical decision in the last group game. Compared to the defeat against Flamengo (1-3), the starting eleven was changed in eight positions. Nevertheless, the Londoners confidently prevailed against underdogs Esperance Tunis with a 3-0 win, securing second place in Group D.

Will the Chelsea stars be more rested for the heated summit?

It will now be exciting to see how Chelsea fare in their first tournament game against a European opponent. Basically, I assume that Benfica’s more playful approach will actually play into the hands of the newly crowned Conference League winners. However, it remains to be seen whether Cole Palmer, Liam Delap and Co. will once again have to deal with a deep-lying team. Against FCB, the “Águias” dug in at the back and focused entirely on the counterattack. Because the English side has already had problems breaking down compact defenses this season, this assessment supports my prediction of a rather tough encounter in Charlotte.

Ultimately, however, I still see the men from Stamford Bridge coming out on top, primarily due to the even higher individual quality in their squad. Added to this is the fact that some of the Blues’ key players have had several days to recover, while Lisbon had to push themselves to the limit against Bayern. However, given the low number of goals expected, a bet on the three-way market would be high risk, so I’m combining the odds for Benfica Lisbon and Chelsea for X2 with under 3.5 goals. The bottom line is that Bet Builder in the Betano app gives you 1.80, which you can also use for the $20 Betano free bet.

Predicted Chelsea line-up:
Sanchez – Cucurella, Badiashile, Adarabioyo, Gusto – Caicedo, James, Fernandez – Neto, Delap, Palmer

Benfica Lisbon – Chelsea Head-to-head record / H2H record

These clubs have met three times in the past. The most prominent duel between Benfica Lisbon and Chelsea was certainly in May 2013, when the Blues claimed the crown against the Portuguese in the UEFA Europa League final. The two Champions League matches from the previous season (2011/12) also went to the Londoners, who thus won all three encounters. However, the relevance of the H2H record is debatable, given that it is now more than twelve years since the last match.

Benfica Lisbon – Chelsea Tip

An all-European round of 16 match is coming up on Saturday evening at 10 p.m. German time in Charlotte. The winner of Group C, Benfica Lisbon, will face the runner-up from Group D, Chelsea FC. On paper, the Londoners have a slight edge, although coach Enzo Maresca’s team has already lost one tournament game against Flamengo (1-3), while the Portuguese are undefeated and even managed to put FC Bayern in their place on Tuesday evening. However, neither team has been 100% convincing so far.

In my opinion, the clubs are evenly matched. In many respects, we shouldn’t expect much spectacle. On the one hand, because both teams will initially shy away from taking big risks given the “do-or-die” nature of the game. On the other hand, because of the extreme conditions in North Carolina, where it will be over 30 degrees again at kick-off – and the artificial turf will be dull. My Benfica Lisbon vs. Chelsea prediction is therefore for under goals. I can see a maximum of two goals in regular time. The top odds at Bet365 are 1.92. I’m betting four out of a possible ten units.