Will Marseille lose their third away game in a row?
The Royals played with one man down for almost an hour against Real Sociedad last weekend. Nevertheless, the Madrid team celebrated their fourth victory in their fourth competitive game of the season. Furthermore, the only goal conceded in the game came from a penalty (2-1). In the Real Madrid vs. Marseille tip, the hosts continue to defend strongly.
Under coach Xabi Alonso, the white ballet from the Spanish capital has conceded two goals in four competitive games this season. Both goals were scored from set pieces (corner, penalty). The French visitors are in for an extremely difficult start in our Real Madrid vs. Marseille prediction.
Visiting teams rarely leave the Santiago Bernabeu with a win. Even in the Champions League, the Madrid team is almost unbeatable at home. Los Blancos have won eleven of their twelve CL group stage home games, scoring almost three goals per game (2.9 goals per game).
If you are registered with Bet-at-Home, you can get odds of 1.33 on Real Madrid vs. Marseille. This assessment should not surprise you given the Olympians’ recent away performances; after all, OM have lost both of their away games this season (both 0-1).
At least Marseille is back in Europe’s top competition. However, the visitors have rarely impressed at this level. OM has lost 18 of its last 21 Champions League appearances (3W) and has only kept a clean sheet in one of those matches.
Real Madrid vs. Marseille Prediction AI
The Royals’ role as favorites is also evident among the best sports betting providers, who are offering 1.85 times the winnings for a home win by at least two goals. Translated, this means a probability of just under 55 percent. According to the Real Madrid vs. Marseille AI prediction, the expected goal difference is 1.97 in favor of the Madrid team.
Real Madrid – Statistics & current form
After four matchdays, Los Blancos lead the Primera Division (twelve points), two points ahead of their eternal rivals and defending champions from Barcelona. Xabi Alonso’s team has conceded the fewest goals in the league (two) and has yet to concede a goal from open play.
Kylian Mbappe has shouldered most of the offensive burden so far, scoring four of the eight goals in La Liga this season. What is particularly striking is how much the French star and his dribbling teammates from the offense are involved in defensive work.
Xabi Alonso has clearly drummed the importance of defensive work into his team. Not for the first time this season, Kylian Mbappe anticipated a misplaced pass before scoring the opening goal against Real Sociedad (2-1), sprinting in at top speed and finishing the subsequent counterattack coolly for his fourth goal of the season.
A breath of fresh air for Real Madrid under Xabi Alonso
Under Xabi Alonso, Los Blancos are forcing dangerous ball wins in the final third of the pitch, which they are playing out with great determination. Only Betis Sevilla (ten) had more shots after winning the ball high up the pitch than Real Madrid (nine) in La Liga in the first four matchdays.
However, the White Ballet is the most successful team in the Primera Division in these situations (three goals). The pressing seems well coordinated and has so far rarely allowed opponents to get into promising scoring positions.
As a result, the Madrid team has forced their opponents in the Spanish top flight to a shot conversion rate of 5.00 percent – the lowest among all Spanish first division teams. We expect to see the same discipline on Tuesday evening.
Marseille – Statistics & current form
This is the second time Roberto De Zerbi has led a team through a Champions League season. However, the Italian is still waiting for his first win in Europe’s premier competition (2D 4L). De Zerbi is once again expected to be unsuccessful in the Real Madrid vs. Marseille prediction.
This is partly due to the Olympians’ poor away record. OM lost their first two away games of the season and failed to score in either match (0-1 vs. Lyon, 0-1 vs. Rennes). At home, however, De Zerbi’s charges have scored a combined nine goals in two competitive games.
In addition, the record of French opponents at the Santiago Bernabeu is more than just improvable. No French club has ever won an away Champions League game against the Madrid team. Eleven of 15 matches ended in defeat for the French clubs (4D).
OM without a chance at the Santiago Bernabeu?
The visitors have had a mixed start to the season in Ligue 1. Two home wins have been offset by two away defeats. Away from their own arena and without the energetic support of their own fans, the OM offense lacks punch.
Olympique Marseille scored 2.97 expected goals in their two away games. At home, however, their scoring chances were enough for 6.17 expected goals. In addition, Roberto De Zerbi has yet to prove that he can compete at the highest European level as a coach.
The Italian coach failed to gain a foothold in the Champions League as coach of Shakhtor Donetsk, achieving a disastrous goal difference of 2:12 in the 2021-22 season. The short-term outlook does not look much better.
Real Madrid – Marseille Head-to-head record
The two clubs have faced each other four times. In 2009, Real Madrid and Olympique Marseille met in Group C of the Champions League. The Royals won the first leg at home without conceding a goal (3-0). Los Blancos followed this up with another win away from home (3-1). Two further encounters took place in the 2003 Champions League group stage. On that occasion, the Whites also won both direct comparisons (4-2, 2-1).
Real Madrid – Marseille Tip
For the 27th time in the club’s history, Real Madrid will start the European Cup/Champions League season with a home game. From the experience gained in the last 26 cases (23 W, 2 D, 1 L), we know how these first encounters usually end for Los Blancos.
After a successful start to the season with four wins from four league games and the fewest goals conceded in the Spanish top flight, Madrid fans can dream of a fifth competitive win in a row. Even a clean sheet is conceivable.
However, we would be satisfied if Xabi Alonso’s team prevented Marseille from scoring for the third time this season and sent them back to France without a goal. At European level, OM has not won any of its five previous away games (1D 4L). This streak will continue at the Santiago Bernabeu. At ODDSET, we are betting on Real Madrid vs. Marseille odds of 2.35 and playing “Marseille under 0.5 goals.”
