Will Rangnick’s team fulfill their duty?
Things are slowly getting serious in the World Cup qualifiers. Halfway through the qualifying matches, the Red-White-Reds are at the top of qualifying group H with a maximum of twelve points. During this international break, Ralf Rangnick’s team will be looking to secure two more wins to leave no doubt about their status as favorites for a ticket to the World Cup in the USA, Mexico, and Canada.
The foundation for this is to be laid on Thursday in the almost sold-out Happel Stadium against San Marino. It goes without saying that the Alpine republic’s soccer players are facing a must-win game in this match. However, due to the meager betting odds for a win by the hosts, it is not worth betting on a victory for the 22nd-ranked team in the world in Austria vs. San Marino. Instead, it would be better to bet on the goals.
As confident as Ralf Rangnick’s team has been in qualifying so far, it has rarely put on a spectacular show. In their victories against Romania, Cyprus, and Bosnia, the Red-White-Reds have always won by just one goal. Only against San Marino did the Austrians win 4-0.
It would be so important for the country, which last participated in a World Cup finals in 1998, to score a few goals on Thursday. Unlike in most national leagues, in World Cup qualifying, it is not the head-to-head result that decides when teams are tied on points, but the goal difference. In this regard, the Austrians are currently behind Bosnia, their closest competitor for the group victory. With regard to the likely decisive match between these two teams on November 18, it would therefore be important to build up a cushion against the bottom team in the FIFA world rankings.
One player in particular is likely to be highly motivated going into this match. Austrian veteran Marko Arnautovic is just three goals away from tying Toni Polster as the national team’s all-time leading scorer. He won’t get a better opportunity to work on this statistic anytime soon. So it’s quite conceivable that Thursday at the Happel Stadium will be one for the history books. However, it’s hardly worth betting on, as Bet365 is offering odds of 1.11 for Arnautovic to score.
Even though a clear home win is to be expected, the prediction for Austria vs. San Marino is to bet on less than 5.5 goals. This can be played at Bet365 at attractive odds beyond the doubling mark. However, it is not only Ralf Rangnick’s team’s stingy offense that suggests the visitors will be able to keep the score within reasonable limits.
With an average of less than four goals conceded per game, the bottom team in the world rankings in this World Cup qualifier has already shown that it does not want to be just cannon fodder. Roberto Cevoli’s team has only lost by more than five goals once. Based on this statistic, a handicap bet on Austria against San Marino at decent odds is a good option.
Austria – San Marino Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
These two teams have met three times so far – and Austria has won all three times with ease. Since it’s likely that the match will be decided early on and Ralf Rangnick will need to save his players’ energy for the important game in Bucharest, there will probably be a lot of substitutions at halftime. This will give the substitutes the opportunity to score a goal even when coming off the bench.
Austria – San Marino Tip
It is almost certain that the hosts will win this game. So while we can expect a comfortable victory that will allow early substitutions to save energy for Sunday, we should still bet on fewer goals. It is also more worthwhile to bet on substitute goals than on a goal from Arnautovic, as the odds are significantly better.
The rather lackluster offense of the flawless Austrians and the relatively stable defense of the world’s lowest-ranked team so far – by their own standards – suggest that fewer than six goals will be scored. This tip can be played at good betting odds for Austria vs. San Marino.
