Will the Bills make the expected bounce-back game?
Once again, the NFL game day will be decided on Tuesday night, and once again there will be two games. The action kicks off in Atlanta, followed an hour later by the kickoff in Washington.
However, we are focusing here on the matchup at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Falcons are hosting the Bills, and Buffalo is clearly the favorite according to the odds at Bwin. Based on their performances so far, we agree with this assessment.
Bye weeks are usually used to review the current season, allow injured players to recover, and make adjustments. For franchises that have a break so early in the season, it is often too early to assess the season. The Falcons were one of the teams that were allowed or forced to take a break after just four weeks this season.
Looking at their 2-2 record, the summary can only be described as mixed. A 22-6 win against the Vikings and a 34-27 win against Washington were the bright spots, while the 0-30 loss to the Panthers was definitely the low point so far. Now, however, Raheem Morris’ team faces a mammoth task in the Falcons vs. Bills prediction – on paper, at least.
Because even though Buffalo suffered its first defeat last week, the franchise is undoubtedly one of the favorites for the title. In this matchup, too, the Falcons vs. Bills odds clearly favor the visitors.
The 20:23 defeat in the division matchup against New England on the fifth matchday does not weigh so heavily on us, which is why we expect a bounce-back game. This is also because we consider Sean McDermott’s team to be stronger than their upcoming opponents in all areas. After the Bills failed to cover the market handicap of -14.5 and -7.5 twice in a row, we are now venturing to predict that they will succeed this time.
Atlanta Falcons – Buffalo Bills Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
The markets have also become more cautious. Buffalo is only a 4.5-point favorite in Atlanta, and a five-point victory seems realistic based on their performances so far. The offense led by quarterback Josh Allen, who is currently the gold standard, continues to run at full speed.
Only two teams in the league have scored more points than Buffalo’s average of 30.6 points per game over the first five weeks. A direct comparison with Atlanta once again highlights how well the offense is performing, as the hosts of the upcoming game are averaging only 19 points per game.
On the defensive side, the picture is different, as these two units are statistically almost on par. Both allow an average of around 22 points, but the Falcons currently have the defense that allows opposing offenses the least amount of yardage. So far, this group has excelled in both pass and run defense.
The average of 135 passing yards allowed is by far the best in the NFL. Incidentally, the Bills are second in this statistic. Considering the hosts’ offense has not been convincing so far and the solid defenses on both sides, we consider the over/under of 49.5 points to be too high.
Now it’s time to look at the head-to-head comparison. The first matchup took place in 1973, and including this game, there have been 13 meetings so far. However, since the last two encounters were three and eight years ago, respectively, no reliable prediction can be made for the Falcons vs. Bills betting odds. Buffalo leads the series by a narrow margin with 7:6 wins.
Atlanta Falcons – Buffalo Bills Tip
We have already hinted at this, so our Falcons vs. Bills tip is no longer particularly surprising. We are putting six units on the recommendation that fewer than 50 points will be scored.
In addition, we think it is likely that the franchise with the better quarterback will prevail. Similar to the best bookies, we are leaning heavily toward the visitors and predicting a victory in which they cover the 4.5-point handicap.
Even with the last option, we are betting on the McDermott team and deliberately choosing to take more risk. Despite their good pass defense, the Atlanta defense has already allowed five passing touchdowns, which is why we are placing a player bet on a pass receiver. Josh Allen has already thrown nine touchdown passes, but has only found the arguably best wide receiver, Keon Coleman, in the end zone twice. The value for a touchdown by the 22-year-old pass catcher is definitely there with odds of 2.95 in the Betano app.
