Will SVW score against a formidable opponent?

SV Werder Bremen has lost six of its ten Bundesliga matches against 1. FC Union Berlin, which is 60 percent of all encounters. The Green-Whites have an even higher defeat rate against only one other club in the top flight of German soccer, namely RB Leipzig (62.5 percent). Therefore, when betting on Werder Bremen vs. Union Berlin, it must be taken into account that Werder’s bogey team is coming to the Weser and must first be beaten.

SVW is encouraged not only by the fact that they have gone two league games in a row without defeat (one win, one draw), but also that they have lost only one of their last seven Bundesliga home games across two seasons (three wins, three draws). Nevertheless, in Werder Bremen vs. Union Berlin, a home win for the Green-Whites is not our first choice, as the Köpenickers have made a solid start with ten out of a possible 21 points and have already recorded a 4-3 away win at Champions League participants Eintracht Frankfurt. We are therefore switching to the tip that there will be over 2.5 goals at the Weser Stadium.

It is striking that the Ironers, who in their first Bundesliga years were always known for their tough defensive football and many clean sheets, have recently been remarkably susceptible to conceding goals. In their three Bundesliga away games, two of which they lost (one win), they have already conceded eight goals. Only Bremen themselves and Frankfurt (ten each) have conceded more goals away from home.

Werder Bremen vs. Union Berlin Prediction AI

Here and there, the AI strongly disagrees with us. In this case, however, the AI also believes that there is value in betting on a home win for the Weserelf. The Bet365 app offers odds of 2.15 for this, which implies a 46.5 percent chance of a Bremen win. However, the Werder Bremen vs. Union Berlin AI prediction calculates a 49.5 percent chance of victory for the Green-Whites, resulting in a positive expected value.

Werder Bremen – Statistics & current form

Werder Bremen goes into the match with an ambivalent history: only three of the ten Bundesliga games against the Köpenickers have been won. However, two of these victories were celebrated in the last two home games. The 4-1 win at the end of December 2024 was also Union’s last Bundesliga game under Bo Svensson. Since then, the Weserelf have not scored as many goals in any of their subsequent 13 Bundesliga home games.

Nevertheless, the Green-Whites are in good form at home. Across the season, they have only lost one of their last seven Bundesliga home games (three wins, three draws). After the 1-0 win against St. Pauli, they are now eyeing their second consecutive home win for the first time this season. Something they only managed once in the entire previous season.

Werder Bremen must improve significantly defensively

The Achilles’ heel of Horst Steffen’s team remains their defense: 16 goals conceded make SVW the second-weakest defense in the league. Added to this is the league’s highest number of shots on goal by opponents (44). Explosive for the matchup: Union has already scored 15 times from set pieces in the 2025 calendar year, while Werder has conceded 16 set-piece goals in the same period. This also fuels our tip for over 2.5 goals in Werder Bremen vs. Union Berlin.

Individually, however, there are still some bright spots: Marco Grüll recently ended his dry spell and scored his first Bundesliga brace (4-1) in the last home game against Union. Jens Stage has only scored away from home in 2025, but his last home goal at the Weser was also against Union (4-1).

Union Berlin – Statistics & current form

Union Berlin has gotten off to a good start overall, securing ten out of a possible 21 points at the start of the 2025/26 season, which puts the capital city club in ninth place in the table. Nevertheless, the odds are now against Union Berlin in their match against Werder Bremen. At LeoVegas, where new customers can claim a classic 100% bonus up to €100 with the LeoVegas bonus, the odds for an away win for the Köpenick team are 3.40.

This is certainly due to the inconsistent away form of Steffen Baumgart’s team. There were two defeats in the first three away games, plus eight goals conceded. This puts FCU third from bottom in the away defensive table behind Eintracht Frankfurt and today’s hosts Werder Bremen (ten each).

Union Berlin impressive from set pieces

However, the capital city club also has a clear trump card in its favor, namely set pieces. Berlin scored 15 of its 33 Bundesliga goals in 2025 from set pieces (45 percent – the highest percentage in the league). Danilho Doekhi underlines the team’s aerial dominance: nine of his ten Bundesliga goals have been scored with his head. Since August 2022, no defender in Europe’s top five leagues has scored more often with his head (Arsenal’s Gabriel also has nine). In addition, Doekhi won 72 percent of his duels – joint best in the league with Werder’s Marco Friedl (at least 30 duels each).

The downside: Union Berlin have largely lost the compactness with which they shook up the Bundesliga after their promotion and have conceded the second-most shots on goal in the league (41). This is exactly where the lever must now be applied on the Weser. Otherwise, another meager away game looms.

Werder Bremen – Union Berlin Head-to-head record

Head to head: 4 – 1 – 6

Eleven competitive matches have been played between the two teams so far, who first clashed in the DFB Cup in 2009, when SV Werder Bremen celebrated a resounding 5-0 away win at 1. FC Union Berlin, who were still in the lower division at the time. Since then, the balance has clearly shifted in favor of Union, who have won six of the ten Bundesliga duels against the Green-Whites (one draw, three defeats). Only against RB Leipzig does the Weserelf have an even higher defeat rate (62.5 percent) in the Bundesliga than against FCU (60 percent).

Werder Bremen – Union Berlin Tip

Basically, we think Werder Bremen’s home win against Union Berlin is a viable prediction, even though the record clearly favors the Iron Ones. SVW have been difficult to beat at the Weserstadion recently, with only one defeat in their last seven Bundesliga home games (three wins, three draws). However, the visitors from the capital are extremely dangerous from set pieces, which means they are always capable of striking out of nowhere.

In addition, both teams are very vulnerable defensively. Eintracht Frankfurt is currently the Bundesliga’s whipping boy in terms of goals conceded. However, when it comes to shots on goal allowed, the two bottom teams are neck and neck. The Iron have already conceded 41 shots on goal, while SVW have conceded 44. This clearly suggests that there will be a goal or two in this match.