Will the Gule Horde make a comeback against the Monégasques?

AS Monaco reached the Champions League final in 2004 and won three consecutive games in the premier class between March and April 2017. Since then, however, things have gone downhill and the team from the principality has celebrated only one more victory in the subsequent 27 Champions League games (four wins, seven draws, 16 defeats). There is therefore little to suggest that the tip for an away win for the Rouge et Blanc will come true in Bodö/Glimt vs. Monaco.

However, the Gule Horde have also been winless in six competitive games in the UEFA main rounds (excluding qualifying rounds) (two draws, four defeats) and have conceded at least two goals in each of these six games without exception. The most promising prediction for Bodö/Glimt vs. Monaco is therefore that there will tend to be a lot of goals at Aspmyra Stadium, which is why we recommend betting on over 2.5 goals.

If you’re not afraid to take a risk, we believe there is also a lot of value in betting on a draw. Not only have three of AS Monaco’s last four Champions League games ended in a draw (one defeat), but Bodö/Glimt has also shared the points with both Slavia Prague and Tottenham (2-2 each) in this year’s league phase.

Bodö/Glimt vs. Monaco Prediction AI

AI also recommends a three-way bet in this match, but clearly favors the players from the principality. While the Interwetten app is offering odds of 2.75 for a Rouge et Blanc victory, suggesting a probability of just 36.4 percent, the AI predicts a 47 percent chance of victory for Monaco in Bodö/Glimt vs. Monaco. That is more than ten percent higher and creates one of the most positive expectations of all on this fourth matchday of the Champions League group stage.

Bodö/Glimt – Statistics & current form

FK Bodö/Glimt lost their lead in the Norwegian Eliteserien over the weekend, with only three matchdays left to go. In a long-distance duel with Viking, the Gule Horde suffered a bitter 1-3 away defeat at Valerenga, which came at the worst possible time after four wins in a row. Kjetil Knutsen’s team will now probably not be 100 percent focused on the Champions League, which further underscores our prediction of a high-scoring game between Bodø/Glimt and Monaco.

For the Norwegians, this is their first match against Monaco and only their second ever against a French club (most recently a 1-1 draw against Nice in January 2025 in the Europa League). Bodö/Glimt are winless in their last six European matches (two draws, four defeats) and have conceded at least two goals in each of those games (15 in total).

Bodö/Glimt is too vulnerable defensively overall

A clear lever has already been marked at Aspmyra Stadium: both Champions League home goals were scored by Hakon Evjen and Jens Petter Hauge (both against Tottenham). It was one of five double assist combinations from one player to the same teammate this season.

Against the Rouge et Blanc, the key will be to repeat this precision on the wings while also stopping the run of conceded goals. Given the recent 2-2 draw trend in this group, the Gule Horde can certainly break their winless streak against an opponent who is also still winless with cleanly secured transition moments and consistent penalty area coverage. However, the basic prerequisite remains that the number of clear chances against them must be kept below the high mark of recent games…

Monaco – Statistics & current form

AS Monaco slipped to fifth place in Ligue 1 after a 0-1 home defeat in their dress rehearsal against Paris FC, suffering a setback in the title race. Instead of staying one point behind PSG, they are now four points behind the leaders. Things are not looking much better in the Champions League. They have currently recorded three draws in their last four CL games (one defeat), the last two in a row; the last time they had three draws in a row was in 1997/98.

Although Bodö/Glimt are offering high odds for a Monaco win, we would advise against the prediction of AI BETSiE, which sees the Rouge et Blanc at an advantage. After all, the Monégasques have fallen well short of their expected goals this season. With an xG of 5.4, ASM have scored only three goals (difference -2.4). Only two teams in the competition are underperforming more.

Monaco is looking for more punch internationally

Maghnes Akliouche is a prime example of the volume of chances without reward: twelve shots in the Champions League without a goal. That is the absolute negative value among all players who have yet to score. Against Tottenham on matchday three, he had six shots. Since 2003/04, only Javier Chevantón (seven) has had more attempts without scoring in a Monégasques Champions League game.

For Sébastien Pocognoli’s team, this means that the chances they create must be converted into clear finishes. The fact that ASM have already scored 23 goals in eleven Ligue 1 games, which is only surpassed by Olympique Marseille (25) in the league, shows that the potential is there.

Bodö/Glimt – Monaco Head-to-head record

Head to head: 0 – 0 – 0

The two teams have never met before in a competitive international match. In fact, this is only the second time that a Norwegian team has faced a French club in the Champions League, after Lyon beat Rosenborg 2-1 in December 2005. This means that there is no head-to-head data available that could influence our prediction for Bodö/Glimt vs. Monaco.

Bodö/Glimt – Monaco Tip

While we are struggling to pick a favorite, AI lady BETSiE finds the greatest value in betting on the Monégasques, which we consider too risky. Not only have the Rouge et Blanc won only four of their last 27 Champions League games (seven draws, 16 defeats) and remained winless in the first three matchdays of the league phase (two draws, one defeat), but they also blew their dress rehearsal on Saturday, suffering a 0-1 defeat at home in the principality against Paris FC. However, the Norwegians also lost their lead in the table at the weekend with a bitter 3-1 defeat at Valerenga in the heated phase of the title race.

It is striking that the games involving the Norwegians have mostly been full of goals. The Gule Horde knows where the opponent’s goal is, but has not won in its last six competitive matches in UEFA main rounds (two draws, four defeats) and has always conceded at least two goals. There is therefore every reason to expect a high-scoring match at Aspmyra Stadium.

We recommend betting on over 2.5 goals, which can be played at Bet-at-home at odds of 1.50 for Bodö/Glimt against Monaco. We are betting seven out of ten possible units.