Who will secure the first points?

Two Champions League participants are still waiting for their first point in the current season. These two clubs are facing each other in the Ajax Amsterdam vs. Benfica tip. However, you will find a clear trend in the sports betting apps.

Our Ajax Amsterdam vs. Benfica prediction is in line with the bookmakers’ odds – we favor the visitors from Portugal. Compared to their guests, the Godenzonen are in a much deeper crisis and have also slumped massively at the national level.

The ripcord has already been pulled and Fred Grim has been installed as interim coach for the time being. His record: two competitive games, two defeats, and a goal difference of 2:4. First, the Amsterdam club suffered a defeat against the fifth-placed team in the Eredivisie (1:2 vs. Utrecht), followed by a 1:2 defeat against Excelsior (14th) last weekend.

Although both clubs are still without points after four matchdays in the top flight, there is a massive gap between their performances, as can be seen from the home side’s miserable goal difference (-13). The Ajax Amsterdam – Benfica odds rightly put the visitors led by head coach José Mourinho in the role of favorites.

Of all 36 teams in the Champions League group stage, the Dutch hosts have the weakest defense (14 goals conceded). Ajax has conceded at least two goals in each of its previous four CL games. “Benfica Over 1.5 Goals” could be a suitable alternative to our Ajax Amsterdam vs. Benfica tip.

Ajax Amsterdam vs. Benfica AI prediction

The recommendations of artificial intelligence are moving in a similar direction. “Benfica Over 1.5 Goals” would be just as much an option as a “Benfica Win.” However, according to the AI prediction, it is better to take the risk of betting on a total of “Under 2.5 Goals” in the game.

Ajax Amsterdam – Statistics & current form

The season has been disastrous for De Godenzonen so far. At the national level, the 36-time Dutch champions are only sixth in the table. Across all competitions, they currently lack the level to compete with the best teams.

Interim coach Fred Grim has also been unable to make a positive impact, losing his first two competitive games 1-2. After thorough analysis, it is clear that a lack of luck is not the problem. Ahead of our Ajax Amsterdam vs. Benfica prediction, the home side has lost the expected goals comparison in seven of eight competitive games.

This became quite clear in their four appearances at the highest European level so far. After a relatively mild 0-2 defeat against Inter in their opening game, they conceded a barrage of goals. The subsequent 0-4 defeat against Marseille was followed by a 1-5 defeat against Chelsea. Ajax also lost 0-3 to Galatasaray on the last matchday of the Champions League.

A clear trend

There haven’t been any successful European Cup evenings in Amsterdam for quite some time. Including last season, the Amsterdam club has lost seven consecutive matches in one of the three European competitions. The goal difference during this period is also alarming (4-22).

The hosts currently have the worst goal difference in the Champions League (-13). Fred Grim fields a team that is both the weakest offense (1 goal) and the weakest defense (14 goals conceded). The expected goal difference looks a little better, but is also negative (-4.5 xGD).

Even the expected goal difference from the two previous Champions League home games is negative (-1.6 xGD), reducing the loyal fans’ hopes to an absolute minimum. Across all competitions, the hosts have lost three of their last four home games (1D).

Benfica – Statistics & current form

José Mourinho will once again be appearing in the Champions League as a coach. Shortly after his dismissal from Fenerbahce, the Portuguese was presented as head coach in Lisbon. There, the 62-year-old has averaged 1.85 points in 13 competitive games.

Like his predecessor, Mourinho has yet to pick up any points with the Eagles in the Champions League. However, the visitors have come close on several occasions – in stark contrast to Ajax. Mourinho and his new team suffered defeat on the second matchday of the Champions League at his former stomping ground, Stamford Bridge (0-1). Following a 3-0 defeat to Newcastle, the Lisbon club lost again, this time narrowly to Leverkusen (0-1).

According to our Ajax Amsterdam – Benfica prediction, Mourinho can hope for his first Champions League win this week with the third-placed team in the Portuguese top flight. The dress rehearsal last weekend was certainly a success (2-0 vs. Atletico CP).

Fewer weaknesses

While Ajax is struggling in all competitions, Benfica has only failed to deliver results in the Champions League. At the national level, the Scarlet Reds have yet to be defeated this season. Benfica won the Supertaca Candido De Oliveira at the start of the season. In addition, the visitors celebrated three shutout victories in three matches in the two remaining cup competitions.

In the league, Mourinho’s team has dropped points four times so far, but has always managed to avoid defeat. This has kept the gap to Porto at the top of the table within limits. Added to this is a certain amount of anticipation ahead of the clash with Ajax.

The Eagles from Lisbon have lost only one of their nine previous away games in European competitions against Dutch teams. Also interesting: Benfica has kept a clean sheet in three of its last four direct duels against Dutch opponents.

Ajax Amsterdam – Benfica Head-to-head record / H2H record

Benfica are unbeaten in their last three head-to-head matches and won the last encounter in the round of 16 of the 2022 Champions League over two legs (2-2, 1-0). We also give the visitors a slight advantage in this rematch because their defense makes significantly fewer mistakes than Ajax Amsterdam.

Ajax Amsterdam – Benfica Tip

On average, the hosts conceded more than 2.0 expected goals per game (8.5 xGA in total) in the first four Champions League matchdays. Ajax regularly allowed high-quality chances against them and conceded 0.15 expected goals per opponent shot.

In addition, three individual errors by Ajax players have already led to an opponent’s goal – no other CL participant has conceded more goals through their own mistakes so far. In view of the home side’s form, individual lapses are still to be expected.

At the other end of the field, the hosts have also been disappointing so far. Only Paphos had fewer touches in the opponent’s penalty area in the previous four rounds than the 36-time Dutch champions (55). The visitors from Lisbon had exactly twice as many touches in the opponent’s box. All in all, Benfica is the clear favorite in the Ajax Amsterdam vs. Benfica odds comparison.