Will the Magpies extend their winning streak on the Côte d’Azur?

Newcastle United Football Club started the second phase of the UEFA Champions League with a 1-2 home defeat to FC Barcelona, but the Magpies subsequently managed three clean-sheet victories, which saw Eddie Howe’s team climb to sixth place in the Champions League table.

If Newcastle win again against Marseille, NUFC are guaranteed to remain in the coveted top 8 spot.

Olympique Marseille, on the other hand, would be eliminated as things stand and urgently need to improve. They lost three of their first four games in the league phase, although OM conceded just five goals in total in all four games. This aspect also has a significant influence on our prediction for Marseille vs. Newcastle, as we do not expect a particularly high-scoring match at the Stade Vélodrome. Considering that the visitors in particular have conceded very few goals and kept three clean sheets in a row, we find the greatest value in betting that the Phocéens will score a maximum of one goal at home.

But overall, bets on a low-scoring duel on the Côte d’Azur also offer extremely high value. The fact that the Magpies have already scored ten goals is somewhat deceptive. In fact, the British team only had 50 shots on goal, but impressed with one of the best conversion rates in the competition (20 percent).

Accordingly, the odds for a maximum of two goals in the Marseille vs. Newcastle match are interesting, with the Betano app putting them at 2.02.

Marseille vs. Newcastle AI prediction

With an expected goals value of 1.37 for OM and 1.49 for NUFC, AI can certainly imagine a high-scoring match with goals on both sides, unlike us, but AI sees the greatest value in the three-way system, because in fact, for Marseille vs. Newcastle, the AI prediction is for an away win for the Magpies, which is quoted at 2.52 by Merkur Bets. This implies a probability of 39.7 percent. In turn, it calculates a 41.4 percent chance of victory for the northeast English team, which ensures a positive expected value.

Marseille – Statistics & current form

Olympique Marseille may have only picked up three out of a possible twelve points in the Champions League, but they have made an outstanding start to Ligue 1. Among other things, Roberto De Zerbi’s team beat Paris Saint-Germain 1-0 at home and temporarily topped the table, before two consecutive games without a win against Lens (1-2) and Angers (2-2) cost the Phocéens their lead. Most recently, however, OM has racked up three consecutive wins with a goal difference of 9-1, leaving them two points behind PSG in second place.

Now they are looking to build on their success in the Champions League against an old acquaintance. Marseille remained unbeaten and without conceding a goal in two encounters against NUFC, winning 2-0 at home and drawing 0-0 away (then finalists in the UEFA Cup). However, their recent record against English teams has been poor. They have now gone twelve games without a win against Premier League clubs (three draws, nine defeats), scoring only five goals in total since their last victory in December 2010.

Marseille struggling to maintain their lead

Even now, the odds from the best bookmakers are against Marseille against Newcastle, with Interwetten, for example, offering odds of 2.85 for a home win. This is not surprising, as the Phocéens have not been particularly responsible with their leads. In this UEFA Champions League, Marseille has already dropped six points after taking the lead. OM is the only team to have lost multiple times after scoring the first goal, both times 1-2 (against Real Madrid and Sporting CP).

However, there is a glimmer of hope in the form of the effective duo of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Igor Paixão, who have already combined for three goals this season (two assists from Aubameyang, one from Paixão). If the intact NUFC defense is to be broken, it will probably take another combination of both offensive forces.

Newcastle – Statistics & current form

In the Premier League, Newcastle United Football Club is currently finding it extremely difficult to build on its strong preseason, which ended with a fifth-place finish in the final table. Although the Magpies beat none other than Manchester City 2-1 in Saturday’s dress rehearsal, they had previously suffered two consecutive away defeats at West Ham and Brentford (both 1-3). This leaves Eddie Howe’s team in 14th place at the national level.

The situation is quite different in the Champions League, where the northeast English team is currently in sixth place and well on course for the round of 16. The last three Champions League games were all won without conceding a goal, equaling the club’s previous record. The Magpies have never had four wins, let alone four consecutive Champions League wins, before.

Newcastle is compact at the back and efficient up front

In addition to their defensive compactness, efficiency has been the decisive factor. Ten goals from 50 shots means a conversion rate of 20 percent—a mark that only four other teams in the competition have also achieved. Accordingly, the odds are high in Marseille against Newcastle that NUFC will also score at the Stade Vélodrome.

In addition to the in-form Nick Woltemade, who has recently shone several times in the DFB jersey, Anthony Gordon could also come into focus, having already been involved in five goals in the first four CL matchdays (four goals, one assist). At Newcastle, only Alan Shearer has surpassed this mark in a CL season (seven goal contributions in 2002/03).

Marseille – Newcastle Head-to-head record

Head to head: 1 – 1 – 0

In the 2003/04 season, the two teams met in the semifinals of the UEFA Cup. After the first leg in England ended in a goalless draw, Olympique Marseille advanced to the final with a 2-0 home win against Newcastle United, but lost to Valencia CF. Nevertheless, this duel, which took place more than 20 years ago, is of course not overly relevant for our prediction. Especially since OM are currently waiting for a win in twelve European competitive games against Premier League representatives (three draws, nine defeats).

Marseille – Newcastle Tip

Basically, our prediction for Marseille vs. Newcastle, like BETSiE’s assessment, leans toward the visitors, who have won their last three Champions League games without conceding a goal and have already scored ten goals in the first four matchdays. However, the French also know how to defend effectively. OM conceded only five goals in the first four matchdays. Meanwhile, in Ligue 1, PSG’s formidable defense was already pulled the plug on in a 1-0 home win. Against this backdrop, we would not want to rule out a narrow 1-0 home win or results such as 0-0 or 1-1.

All of the results described above can be covered with a single bet, as can a clear away win for the Magpies. We can do this by betting that the Phocéens will score a maximum of one home goal against the very stable NUFC defense.