Another lackluster performance from the Basques?

Athletic Bilbao has been one of the disappointments of the current Champions League group stage. The Basques have picked up just four points from a possible 15 and sit in a sobering 27th place in the Champions League table, which would see them eliminated as things stand. If Athletic Bilbao’s prediction of a home win against PSG does not come true, the knockout phase would be a distant prospect. At least the team led by experienced coach Ernesto Valverde had a successful dress rehearsal. In La Liga on Saturday, they secured a 1-0 home win over Atlético Madrid.

Overall, the Rouge-et-Bleu have already racked up 13 wins in the Champions League in 2025. No team has ever achieved this since the competition was introduced in the 1992/93 season. Consequently, our prediction for Athletic Bilbao vs. PSG is an away win for Luis Enrique’s team, who has won 11 of 17 competitive games against the Leones in his coaching career (two draws, four defeats).

Admittedly, not all that glitters is gold at Paris Saint-Germain at the moment. After 15 matchdays, the reigning triple winners are surprisingly only in second place in Ligue 1. However, in Saturday’s dress rehearsal, the Rouge-et-Bleu took out their frustrations with a resounding 5-0 home win against Stade Rennes, so we have little doubt about an away win in Bilbao.

However, given the Leones’ fundamentally stable defense, we do not expect a goal fest, so an alternative option for Athletic Bilbao vs. PSG at odds of 1.70 would be to bet on the match combo of double chance X2 with under 3.5 goals to cover results such as 0-0 or 1-1.

Athletic Bilbao vs. PSG AI prediction

While we believe the best value lies in a straightforward bet on an away win for the Rouge-et-Bleu, the AI prediction for Athletic Bilbao vs. PSG points to the exact opposite. AI calculates that the Basques have a 42.2 percent chance of earning a point against the defending champions. Because the odds for the double chance 1X in the Bet-at-home app are 2.50, which implies a probability of only 40 percent, the AI’s assessment results in a positive expected value.

Athletic Bilbao – Statistics & current form

Although they celebrated a 1-0 home win over Atlético Madrid in their final warm-up game, Athletic Bilbao have not been able to build on their strong form from last season, which saw them finish fourth in La Liga. After 16 games, they have already suffered seven defeats, which is only enough for seventh place. The big problem is that they are not scoring enough goals, with only 15 goals from 16 league games. This is also the case in the Champions League. In this Champions League season, the Leones have already failed to score in three games and have been goalless in their last two games in a row. There have never been three in a row in a single season.

Since a 2-0 home win against Paris Saint-Germain in September 2011, the Rojiblancos have won only one of their next seven games against French teams (one draw, five defeats). Coach Ernesto Valverde has a Champions League record of 19 clean sheets in 47 games. Only Rafa Benítez and Pep Guardiola have reached at least 20 more quickly among Spanish coaches.

Athletic Bilbao has beaten PSG at home once before

It is against the defending champions, of all teams, that the recent goal drought must now be broken before a historic negative is marked. The reference from 2011 shows that Athletic have already found the right plan at home against Paris. However, there is not much more than this 14-year-old duel to suggest that the Leones will win at home against PSG, with odds of 6.25 in the Bet365 app.

A personnel side note: Yuri Berchiche is the only professional to have played for both clubs in UEFA competitions. He has already made two appearances for Bilbao in the current edition. This highlights the overlap, but does not change the fact that, given their lack of efficiency in front of goal, it will be extremely difficult to trip up the defending champions.

PSG – Statistics & current form

Paris Saint-Germain travels to Spain on the back of an impressive away run. The Rouge-et-Bleu have recorded three consecutive away wins against Spanish teams in the last three seasons, as many as in their previous 13 away games combined. In the 2025 calendar year, the team from the Seine also won 13 Champions League games. That is the best record since the introduction of the Champions League. In the process, they scored 51 goals.

In the 2025/26 season, Luis Enrique’s team continues to lead many key offensive categories despite suffering from a string of injuries: most goals (19) and most shots (102). Historically, only PSG in 2017/18, Bayern in 2019/20, and Napoli in 2022/23 have scored more goals after five matchdays. Against this backdrop, we prefer a straight bet on an away win for Athletic Bilbao against PSG to any combinations with under goals.

Will Kvaratskhelia and Vitinha cause a stir for PSG again?

Since making his Champions League debut for the Rouge-et-Bleu on February 11, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has been involved in nine goals (five goals, four assists). The Georgian is one of the best dribblers in the competition. Only Lamine Yamal and Vinícius Júnior have recorded more dribbles and more touches in the opponent’s penalty area.

Vitinha is also on a roll, contributing to six goals in his last six Champions League appearances. In the 5-3 win over Tottenham, he became the first PSG player since Opta began collecting data to score a hat trick while also completing at least 80 successful passes – a feat that only Lionel Messi has achieved multiple times.

Athletic Bilbao – PSG Head-to-head record

Head to head: 1 – 0 – 1

In the 2011/12 season, both teams were drawn in the same group in the UEFA Europa League. After Athletic Bilbao recorded a 2–0 home win over Paris Saint-Germain in the first leg in the Basque Country, the Rouge-et-Bleu took revenge in the return leg on the Seine with a 4–2 home win.

Athletic Bilbao – PSG Tip

Contrary to the artificial intelligence’s assessment, our prediction for Athletic Bilbao vs. PSG favors the reigning Champions League winners from the Seine, who have already won 13 games in the premier class in 2025. The Rouge-et-Bleu have scored an incredible 51 goals. That’s 13 more than the second-most successful offense in the Champions League in the whole of 2025. The Basques have kept a clean sheet in three of their last four competitive games and defend at a high level. Ultimately, however, we expect the Parisians to come away with an away win at the Estadio San Mamés.