Will the Basques win enough balls?
The San Mames Stadium is located in the heart of the capital of the Basque Country. It was built in 2013 right next to its predecessor of the same name and has been the home ground of the Lions ever since. Thanks to the vocal support of many loyal fans, Ernesto Valverde’s team often plays with a little more energy at home, which is also helpful in the Athletic Bilbao vs. Espanyol Barcelona tip.
For years, the top Basque club has been known for its intense football, high work ethic, and massive pressure on the opposing team’s ball carrier. These values are once again at the forefront of our Athletic Bilbao vs. Espanyol Barcelona prediction.
No other defensive line is higher than “Los Leones” (45.9 m in front of their own goal) at the start of the first pressing moments. Combined with an average PPDA of 11.2, it quickly becomes clear that this team is compact in every phase of the game.
However, winning has not been easy for the home side recently, which is partly due to their poor success rate in front of the opponent’s goal. So far, the Basques have scored only 15 goals this season (17 games) and no professional has scored more than three goals.
The next visitors could also benefit from this. The Periquitos have been a surprise package this season, currently sitting in fifth place and also standing out from the other teams in the Spanish Primera Division with their exciting defensive profile.
No other club in the Spanish top flight has conceded fewer expected goals per shot than the Blanquiazules (0.09 xGA/shot). We expect a low-scoring game, which is in line with the bookmakers’ predictions. For sufficient value, we are going for a special goal bet and are playing Betano Athletic Bilbao vs. Espanyol Barcelona betting odds of 2.07 for “Espanyol Barcelona under 0.5 goals.”
Athletic Bilbao – Espanyol Barcelona Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
Representative of the Basque team’s typical home strength, we refer to their previous performances at San Mames against Espanyol. Bilbao won four of their last five competitive games at home against the Espanyolistas – two of them without conceding a goal.
Ahead of their latest clash in the Spanish top flight, the hosts have gone four games without defeat against the Canaries (3W, 1D). It will be interesting to see how the Lions perform in their current form. In Bilbao’s last ten competitive games, only one of the two teams has scored in each match.
Athletic Bilbao – Espanyol Barcelona Tip
Teams have built up an above-average shot conversion rate (13.66 percent) against the Basque side. This high value does not match the average quality of chances conceded (0.11 xGA/shot). We can also deduce this from a comparison of goals conceded (22) and expected goals conceded (17.50 xGA).
Call it bad luck, unfortunate circumstances, or misery, but one thing is certain: Bilbao should have conceded fewer goals and is better defensively than the number of goals conceded suggests. The pressing and intensity, coupled with the frenetic crowd, are difficult for any visiting team to overcome.
Espanyol Barcelona will also feel the effects of this. The visitors have recently finished four competitive games in a row with the exact score of 1-0. Manolo Gonzales’ team won three of these four matches. Only in the second round of the Copa del Rey did the Canaries suffer a surprise 0-1 defeat to Atletico Baleares – away from home!
