Will the defenses find their rhythm?
Conceding 17 goals over seven Premier League matchdays is a heavy burden for Pierre Sage in this Crystal Palace vs. Newcastle pick. Just last weekend, the Eagles suffered a heavy defeat against Brighton and showed no signs of improvement on defense (0–5).
The visitors haven’t been flawless leading up to this Crystal Palace vs. Newcastle prediction either. Matthias Jaissle has fielded the youngest starting lineup so far this season (25 years, 73 days). This is a drastic difference compared to last season, when the Magpies’ starting lineup averaged 27 years and 65 days.
While the home team has the most vulnerable defense of the first seven matchdays, Jaissle’s squad also brings one of the four weakest defensive lines to Selhurst Park (14 goals conceded). The high error rates of both teams partly account for the sometimes high Crystal Palace–Newcastle betting odds for a winner.
At the top bookmakers, the Toons have an implied win probability of 44.4%—the highest figure among all three-way options. The hosts are given a 35.7% chance of a win. You should best address these two outcomes with risk-free offers like a free bet.
Pierre Sage has shown no signs so far of being willing to deviate from his preferred style of play. For the 47-year-old, winning the ball in promising positions is more important than building a compact defensive block and supporting the back line when the situation calls for it.
Crystal Palace – Newcastle Head-to-Head Record
The last matchup between the two clubs took place on Matchday 32 of the previous season. Back then, the Eagles won 2-1 at home at Selhurst Park—a result that would be enough for us to win a bet. The reigning Conference League champions have rarely lost home games against the Magpies recently.
Instead, Pierre Sage’s squad is on a streak of five consecutive unbeaten home games against Newcastle. Ismaila Sarr’s return from injury will certainly help extend this streak, though it will take more than just his return.
Crystal Palace – Newcastle Prediction
The expected Premier League table clearly illustrates just how much pressure both sides are under. Crystal Palace has accumulated the fewest expected points (6.1 xPTS) in the league. Just two spots above them, the Magpies sit with 6.7 expected points.
The biggest challenge for both teams is defending their own goal. The Eagles, in particular, have allowed a significantly high rate of opponent shots from inside the penalty area (69.60%). This is especially notable given the high volume of opponent shots (125).
It’s also interesting to look at the other side of the coin. Crystal Palace generates high-quality chances per shot (0.13 xG/shot)—perhaps this is a positive factor behind the home team’s strong performance. In any case, their conversion rate (12.68 percent) is also a plus.
