Will Pep’s team keep the pressure on Arsenal?
Arsenal FC currently leads Manchester City by just five points in the Premier League. In addition, the Skyblues still have a game in hand, so the race for the championship in England is currently wide open. Before the big showdown in Manchester in mid-April, both clubs must logically continue to score points diligently and reduce slip-ups to an absolute minimum.
Ahead of Manchester City’s upcoming match against Nottingham, I believe the title contender is a foregone conclusion. Guardiola’s team has been too consistent in recent weeks, and the effect of the coaching change at the upcoming visitors has faded too quickly.
The Citizens are on a six-game winning streak across all competitions, have won eight of their last nine competitive games, and last lost domestically on January 17 in the city derby at Old Trafford against United. Their last and only PL home defeat this season dates back to August 23, 2025. Eleven of their last 13 league matches at the Etihad Stadium have been victorious. No team scores more goals in front of their own fans and concedes fewer goals than the Sky Blues.
As if this paragraph were not already sufficient to justify a prediction of a favorite win between Manchester City and Nottingham, there are various other statistics that clearly tip the scales in favor of the home side. For example, Man City have won 24 of their 26 PL games on a Wednesday evening under Pep Guardiola. In addition, the Spaniard has an almost perfect record against Portuguese coaches. The perfectionist Catalan has won 17 of the last 20 PL games against colleagues from the neighboring country.
On Wednesday, another Portuguese head coach, Vitor Pereira, will be a guest at the Etihad Stadium. The former coach of TSV 1860 Munich, who was unable to prevent the club’s relegation to the third division during his tenure, has been in charge at Nottingham Forest since mid-February. He got off to a perfect start with a 3-0 away win at Fenerbahce in the Europa League, but has lost the last three games. The relegation battle is omnipresent in the East Midlands. They are only two points ahead of West Ham United and thus the relegation zone.
To make matters worse, there are currently only two teams in the English top flight that have scored fewer away goals than the “Tricky Trees.” All in all, I can’t imagine that the Europa League round of 16 team, which was still the positive surprise of the Premier League in 2024/25, will pull off an away coup on Wednesday.
Ahead of the Manchester City vs. Nottingham match, I would therefore recommend the odds of 1.75 for a home win with a maximum of four goals in the game. On the other hand, it is certainly worth considering betting on the “Garibaldi Reds” failing to score. After all, City has kept a clean sheet in five of its last nine competitive games!
A third alternative would be a result-independent bet on under 3.5, especially since the second-placed team has won 39 percent of all matches this season by exactly one goal. It is unlikely to be a spectacular game, especially given that Erling Haaland, the most important attacker, is expected to be out with injury.
Manchester City – Nottingham Head-to-head record
Manchester City celebrated one of these many narrow victories in the first leg. At City Ground in Nottingham, the game only really got going in the second half. Reijnders put City ahead, Hutchison equalized, before Cherki scored the 2-1 winner in the 83rd minute. It was City’s fourth win in the last five PL encounters.
At home, the Skyblues’ record is even more impressive. Guardiola’s team has won all of its last three home games against its upcoming opponent, scoring eleven goals and conceding none. The one-sided Manchester City vs. Nottingham betting odds are therefore understandable in almost every respect.
Manchester City – Nottingham Tip
Manchester City is currently the strongest team in England. This is evidenced by, among other things, 13 points collected from the last five Premier League games. Across all competitions, Pep’s team has even won six games in a row.
Apart from that, the current second-placed team is a force to be reckoned with at home. The Sky Blues have won 16 of their last 19 home games in the top English league – at least three more than any other opponent! I therefore consider it very unlikely that the star ensemble will slip up in front of their own fans on Wednesday evening.
Because the most popular betting providers see the situation in a similarly clear light and are offering low odds on a home win, I am combining the favorite’s three points with a maximum of four goals after 90 minutes. Why? On the one hand, because the home team has won many games by a narrow margin this season and rarely scores three or more goals. On the other hand, because of the disappointing goal tally of the “Tricky Trees” away from home. Man City to win with under 4.5 goals.
