Can the Frenchman upset the top favorite?
Officially, Jakub Mensik is the defending champion at the Miami Masters. The Czech player prevailed in Florida a year ago when Jannik Sinner, who had won the tournament the previous year, was serving a doping suspension and was not allowed to participate. In a sense, the Italian is now a sort of defending champion in the making, as he has won all of his last seven singles matches at Hard Rock Stadium. Consequently, the prediction that Corentin Moutet will successfully overcome this hurdle against Jannik Sinner also looks promising.
Corentin Moutet entered the Miami tournament as the current world No. 33 and reached the third round of the Miami Masters for the first time in his career. However, the 26-year-old has so far been unable to make any major breakthroughs, as he has a win rate of just 9.5 percent in matches against top-10 players (two wins out of 21 matches played). And yet: In his only match against Jannik Sinner to date, the Frenchman managed to take a set from the top favorite. From a mathematical standpoint, there is indeed value in placing a +1.5-set handicap on Moutet.
If the match proceeds normally, Jannik Sinner should, of course, have no trouble knocking the 26-year-old Frenchman—who has yet to win a single title on the ATP Tour in his career—out of the competition without dropping a set. It is interesting, however, that the Sextner, who could become only the eighth player to win the Sunshine Double following his triumph in Indian Wells, lost the first set in this very third round during his tournament victory in Miami two years ago.
Because the odds are set so high for Corentin Moutet against Jannik Sinner, there is value even at a probability of just 18.1 percent that the Frenchman will win at least one set. And we would definitely give the 26-year-old a 20 to 25 percent chance of winning at least one set.
Corentin Moutet – Jannik Sinner Head-to-Head Record
Head-to-Head: 0:1
The two players have faced each other only once so far. At the 2024 French Open, they faced off in the round of 16, when a surprise seemed briefly on the horizon. The Frenchman ultimately won the first set against Jannik Sinner, who was competing at Roland Garros as the newly crowned Australian Open champion at the time. However, the Italian then regrouped and secured a 3-1 victory.
Corentin Moutet – Jannik Sinner Prediction
Basically, in the match between Corentin Moutet and Jannik Sinner, the prediction that the Sextner will advance is, of course, the only logical outcome. The big question, therefore, is rather whether the Frenchman can take at least one set from the Indian Wells champion. Admittedly, the 26-year-old’s form is somewhat limited, as he has lost all matches against top-10 players in 2026 without winning a single set. In his only previous encounter with the South Tyrolean, however, Corentin Moutet did manage to win a set.
Moreover, the question must be answered from a purely mathematical perspective. Can the Frenchman be given a probability of just 19 percent that he will take at least one set from the South Tyrolean? Our answer is yes, which is why we can recommend the corresponding bet from a pure value perspective, although extreme caution is of course advised when placing a wager.
