What does Manchester City’s next cup run look like?
Eight teams still have a chance to win the title in the world’s oldest cup competition, the English FA Cup. Among them are numerous top clubs such as Manchester City, Liverpool, Arsenal, and Chelsea. Two of these top clubs will face off directly on Saturday afternoon in the first quarterfinal. The odds suggest that the balance tips in favor of the hosts ahead of the Manchester City vs. Liverpool match. At the top of the odds, a home win after regulation time is priced at just 1.80.
The Sky Blues’ surprisingly clear status as favorites can be attributed primarily to two factors. For one, the Reds have lost three of their last four away games across all competitions. Second, Guardiola’s charges have established themselves this season—at least at the domestic level—as a true cup team. The Citizens successfully lifted the trophy in the “second-tier” EFL Cup just two weeks ago. Now they aim to reach the semifinals in the far more prestigious FA Cup as well.
Another reason why my Manchester City vs. Liverpool prediction favors the home team advancing relates to the Sky Blues’ home form. City’s last home loss to an English club came on the opening day of the Premier League against Tottenham. Since then, they’ve recorded 15 wins and three draws in 18 league and cup matches at the Etihad Stadium.
Alternatively, for the Manchester City vs. Liverpool match, I also recommend betting on the under for total goals. While the offensive firepower of both teams certainly suggests a high-scoring spectacle, history has taught us otherwise. For example, in six consecutive head-to-head matches, a maximum of three goals were scored.
Furthermore, in six of City’s last eight competitive matches in front of their home fans, the Under 3.5 line has held. Liverpool has scored no more than one goal in just one of their last six away matches across all competitions. Considering that this is a knockout match and both clubs naturally have the ambition to reach the final at Wembley Stadium in May, it can be assumed that both teams’ approaches will be based on a healthy risk management strategy.
Manchester City – Liverpool Head-to-Head Record
These two exceptional clubs have already faced each other twice in the Premier League this season. Both times, the outcome favored the Sky Blues, who won 3-0 at home in early November and followed that up with a 2-1 victory at Anfield Road in early February. Prior to that, however, the Reds remained unbeaten in four consecutive matches (2-2-0) and conceded only two goals over the course of those four games.
In general, the head-to-head matches have been characterized by caution—and at times, a dearth of chances. In six consecutive matches, a maximum of three goals were scored. In four of those six cases, the Under 2.5 would have come in. Only three times did both teams find the back of the net.
Manchester City – Liverpool Tip
There will be no shortage of top stars on the pitch when Liverpool and Manchester City face off at Anfield on Saturday afternoon for a spot in the FA Cup semifinals. However, the presence of outstanding individual talents is by no means a guarantee that fans at Etihad Stadium will witness an offensive spectacle. Both clubs are looking to use the world’s most prestigious and oldest cup competition to make up for their disappointing performances in the Premier League. City and the Reds alike have their sights set on winning the 2025/26 FA Cup. Consequently, I expect—especially early on—a rather cautious feel-out phase and plenty of midfield skirmishes.
I have therefore decided to place a bet on Under 3.5 goals after 90 minutes in the Manchester City vs. Liverpool match. The 1.55 odds are worth a stake of seven units to me. Fundamentally, I also lean toward the Sky Blues having the better chances of advancing. A bet on the 1X2 market in favor of Guardiola’s team therefore plays just as much of a role in my considerations as a match combo on “City advances & Under 1.5 (1st half).”
