All eyes are on the coaches along the Main!
If someone had told the fans of Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FC Köln at the start of the season that, in the return match on Matchday 28 of the Bundesliga, both clubs would have different coaches on the sidelines than in the first leg, such a claim would likely have been met with a weary smile. In fact, however, it is no longer Dino Toppmöller and Lukas Kwasniok who are in charge on Sunday afternoon, but Albert Riera and Rene Wagner. Since the 35-year-old former assistant Wagner is making his head coaching debut in professional soccer, it is quite difficult to make a solid prediction ahead of the Frankfurt vs. Cologne match.
The fact is that Steffen Baumgart’s longtime assistant coach (at HSV, Union Berlin, and Cologne, among others) has taken over a cohesive squad that—according to the club’s leadership—needs a fresh boost after seven consecutive games without a win. While the Cologne side’s performances were never truly poor, the results failed to materialize, leaving the promoted team now embroiled in a relegation battle in the Bundesliga. They are just two points ahead of 16th place. Even before Sunday afternoon’s match between Frankfurt and Cologne, it’s safe to predict that the upcoming two games against Werder Bremen and St. Pauli—two direct rivals—will definitely be decisive.
The Rhinelanders would love to boost their points tally on the Main, though the task will be anything but easy. Under Albert Riera, SGE has won all of its Bundesliga home games so far and hasn’t conceded a single goal. Nevertheless, criticism of the Spanish head coach—who has been described as egocentric—has grown louder recently. His handling of World Cup champion Mario Götze, in particular, has sparked debate.
Frankfurt vs. Cologne AI Prediction
Artificial intelligence assigns Eintracht Frankfurt a 46.1% probability of winning on Sunday. This would correspond to fair odds of approximately 2.16. However, since the top odds from bookmakers are currently as high as 2.20 and the xG values also confirm Frankfurt’s status as favorites, the Frankfurt vs. Cologne AI prediction is leaning toward a home win! The aforementioned 2.20 odds are available on the Bwin app.
Frankfurt – Stats & Current Form
Who still remembers Erwin Diehl? For over a decade, the native of the Palatinate played for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, appearing in 314 Bundesliga matches, and subsequently worked in various coaching roles for the “Red Devils,” including a brief stint as Otto Rehhagel’s assistant coach and as interim coach of the first team. In that latter role, he became the first Bundesliga coach ever to win his first four home games without conceding a single goal…
This is exactly where Albert Riera comes into the picture, as 43 years later he became the second coach in the German top flight to achieve this feat. Against Gladbach, Freiburg, and most recently Heidenheim, he guided his SGE to three wins, all with clean sheets. The fourth consecutive home win is now set to come against the Billy Goats. According to the Frankfurt vs. Cologne betting odds, there is definitely a real—even a good—chance of victory for the men from the Main metropolis.
The polarizing Riera needs results!
Although the former Spanish pro—who, prior to his hiring, was likely known as a coach only to the deepest insiders of international soccer—has noticeably stabilized the defense of the 2022 Europa League winners, his standing has recently taken a bit of a hit. Albert Riera is being criticized for questionable squad decisions, too much extravagance in public, and polarizing appearances in interviews. Added to this is the fact that while Eintracht won all three home games under him, they remained winless in four away matches and secured only two out of a possible twelve points.
Almost even more concerning is the fact that the Black-Red-Whites are playing soporific soccer. Minimizing risk is the top priority. There hasn’t been much in the way of dazzling, courageous performances lately. But because the defense—as already mentioned—is making a much better impression, I’m combining the odds for the double chance 1X with Under 3.5 goals for my primary tip on the Frankfurt vs. Cologne match.
Cologne – Stats & Current Form
Fear of relegation is currently sweeping through 1. FC Cologne. No wonder, since the Billy Goats have managed to win just two of their last 18 Bundesliga matches. Six draws and ten (!) losses round out the dismal record during this period.
Since the Rhinelanders have once again fallen into a streak of winless matches—conceding an average of over two goals per game—Lukas Kwasniok was forced to step down following the emotional 3-3 draw in the derby against Borussia Mönchengladbach. Until the end of the season, Rene Wagner, a completely inexperienced head coach, will take the reins in the cathedral city.
Will the coaching change make a difference for 1. FC Köln?
The young coach’s most important task was certainly to talk to the players and somehow clear their heads. There is no lack of individual quality, but often a lack of the necessary concentration or conviction to turn matches in their favor. Furthermore, it’s safe to assume that Steffen Baumgart’s longtime assistant will place great emphasis on defense in his debut. This subjective Frankfurt vs. Cologne prediction therefore further supports my recommendation for under goals!
Alternatively, it might even be an option to bet that Cologne will either leave the field as losers or, possibly, fail to score at all.
“Effzeh” has not won any of its last nine Bundesliga away games (0-3-6), boasts one of the most toothless away offenses with just 13 goals scored on the road, and has actually scored more than once in only two Bundesliga away games throughout the entire season. To make matters worse, key player Eric Martel will be suspended after receiving a yellow-red card in the Rhineland derby.
Frankfurt – Cologne Head-to-Head Record
For the first time since 2017/18, Eintracht Frankfurt could win both legs of a Bundesliga fixture against 1. FC Köln. At home, however, the SGE has been waiting for three home games in Germany’s top flight against their upcoming opponent to secure a win. All three matches ended in 1-1 draws. Only against Wolfsburg has Eintracht waited longer for a Bundesliga home win than against the Geißböcke.
The Hessians will, however, fondly recall the first leg, which they won 4-3 in Cologne. On Sunday, though, it’s Riera vs. Wagner and no longer Kwasniok vs. Toppmöller. In my view, that’s exactly what will lead to a low-scoring, hard-fought duel at Deutsche Bank Park.
Frankfurt – Cologne Prediction
On average, Eintracht Frankfurt has fielded the youngest starting lineup in the Bundesliga this season. Cologne’s starting lineup is only slightly older on average. However, anyone expecting an offensive spectacle on Sunday afternoon—similar to SGE’s 4-3 victory in the first leg—infused with youthful exuberance is likely to be disappointed. On the one hand, the Hessians under Riera have yet to concede a goal at home, though they haven’t exactly been playing like stars either. On the other hand, it remains to be seen what approach Rene Wagner, as Kwasniok’s successor, will take with his team in his debut. In any case, I think it’s a good idea to bet on 1X & Under 3.5 between Frankfurt and Cologne.
