Bilbao Clinging to a Sliver of Hope for European Qualification
In Spain, the race for international spots could remain exciting until the very end. Looking at the standings, at least a dozen teams still have a realistic chance of securing seventh place. Depending on the league performance of the newly crowned cup winner Real Sociedad and the remainder of Rayo Vallecano’s Europa Conference League season, there could even be more spots up for grabs in the country of the reigning European champions. This makes it all the more important for the chasing pack to do their homework and secure the best possible position after 38 matchdays. My Athletic Bilbao vs. Osasuna prediction is based precisely on this premise, as the two clubs, currently in eleventh and ninth place, are separated by just two points.
This year’s Champions League participant from the Basque Country, in particular, has undoubtedly set its sights on competing in Europe again in 2026/27. Recently, however, things have been anything but smooth for coach Ernesto Valverde’s team. They’ve lost five of their last six competitive matches, four of them in La Liga. Particularly alarming: In four of those five losses, “Los Leones” failed to score a single goal.
The fact that I’m still leaning toward the home team in my prediction for Tuesday night’s match between Athletic Bilbao and Osasuna—part of a midweek fixture in Spain—is primarily because the men from the province of Biscay are significantly stronger at home than on the road. They have won three of their last five home league matches. Only against the absolute top teams, Villarreal (1-2) and Barcelona (0-1), did they suffer narrow defeats in this review.
Furthermore, it is crucial to note that the visitors from Pamplona arrive as one of the least threatening away teams. “Los Rojillos” have managed a meager ten points in 16 away matches in La Liga. Only Mallorca and Elche, who are seriously fighting to avoid relegation, have collected even fewer points on the road.
To make matters worse, no other club has scored fewer goals on the road than the current ninth-place team, which has scored 26 of its 37 total goals this season at home. Although their overall form looks impressive with just two losses in their last twelve competitive matches, they have managed to secure only two points from their previous four away games. On two occasions, the northern Spaniards—who have one of the league’s most prolific strikers in Ante Budimir (16 goals)—failed to find the back of the net.
All in all, there are several options for making betting recommendations based on the statistics. For example, one approach would be to bet on the 1X outcome with Under 3.5 goals ahead of the Athletic Bilbao vs. Osasuna match. At Betano, you’ll get odds of 1.60 for this match combo.
Athletic Bilbao – Osasuna Head-to-Head Record
The first leg earlier this year ended in a 1-1 draw, which, given the quality of chances on both sides, had to be considered more of a success for Osasuna. Last season, the Basques picked up four out of a possible six points, even though no goals were scored in the home game. Osasuna’s last league win against the Lions came in 2023. Their last away win in La Liga at San Mamés dates back as far as 2020.
High-scoring matches have rarely been on the agenda in this rivalry anyway. Including friendlies and cup games, the Under 3.5 would have come in 11 of the past 13 encounters, and in most cases even the Under 2.5, which confirms my assumption that I should also keep an eye on the betting odds for a low-scoring match between Athletic Bilbao and Osasuna.
Athletic Bilbao – Osasuna Tip
Qualification for a European competition is still possible this season for both Athletic Bilbao and Osasuna. However, sitting in eleventh and ninth place respectively, they still have ground to make up. On Tuesday evening, I expect the home side to be the ones to succeed. Although the Lions from the Basque Country have recently struggled with a serious slump in form, they are always capable of picking up points at home. They’ve even won three of their last five home games in La Liga!
The odds are particularly good against Osasuna, especially since the visitors from Pamplona have picked up just ten points on the road this season and, with only eleven goals scored, boast the least potent away attack of all 20 clubs. However, since Lisci’s team has performed well recently and is not so easy to beat thanks to a solid defense, I’ve ultimately decided to go with the 1X & Under 3.5 bet ahead of the Athletic Bilbao vs. Osasuna match.
