The DFB Team is getting in the mood
There are exactly two weeks left before the German national soccer team kicks off the 2026 World Cup against Curaçao. Coach Julian Nagelsmann’s squad aims to put the finishing touches on their preparations in the final two friendly matches. One of these will take place on Sunday evening at the MEWA Arena in Mainz against Finland. The DFB team wants to build momentum, solidify various tactical routines, and, of course, boost their confidence with another victory. The odds are looking pretty good in that regard, as betting providers seem to consider a victory for the expected favorites a mere formality.
My Germany vs. Finland prediction also clearly favors the 2014 World Champions, even though the player who’s been the subject of most recent discussion won’t even be on the field. The reactivated Manuel Neuer is being rested due to injury. The demoted Oliver Baumann will guard the net in his place. In attack, too, the presumed first-choice Kai Havertz will not start, as he played for Arsenal FC in the Champions League final the day before.
Regardless, everything points to a commanding victory for the Germans, who have won all of their last seven international matches. During this winning streak, the DFB team scored an impressive 22 goals—an average of more than three per game. They scored three or more goals on three separate occasions. In March, there was a 2-1 win against Ghana as well as the spectacular 4-3 victory in Switzerland.
In my opinion, the upcoming friendly will be more akin to the match against the “Black Stars” from Africa. The Finnish team was deliberately chosen as an opponent because, similar to the opponents in World Cup Group E, they defend deep in their own half yet still bring a certain physicality to the game. There won’t be an open back-and-forth, which is why I can easily see combining the odds on a home win with under goals between Germany and Finland.
Fundamentally, however, the German team must be considered the clear favorite. Especially given that the “Huuhkajat” (the Owls) finished third in their World Cup qualifying group behind the Netherlands and Poland. In March, the team led by Danish coach Lars Friis also lost a friendly match in the FIFA Series against Cape Verde 1-2 in a penalty shootout.
Germany – Finland Head-to-Head Record
In head-to-head matchups, the statistics clearly favor the DFB squad. In twelve encounters so far, Germany has remained unbeaten, with eight wins and four draws. Finland, on the other hand, is still waiting for its first win against the Germans.
Germany won the most recent encounter 2-0 in 2016. Back then, Max Meyer and Mesut Özil scored the goals. Interestingly, prior to that victory, four consecutive head-to-head matches ended in draws. In the five matches played so far this millennium, the German team has never scored more than three goals.
Will that change on Sunday evening in Mainz?
Germany – Finland Prediction
Against Finland, the DFB squad is the clear favorite despite the absence of Manuel Neuer or Kai Havertz. They have won all of their last seven international matches, scoring 22 goals in the process.
Finland, on the other hand, is likely to face a major defensive challenge. The “Huuhkajat” are considered a physically robust team with a deep defensive block, but they often lack punch in attack. Therefore, a controlled game by the Germans is expected rather than an open slugfest. There is much to suggest a comfortable home win, though likely without an extremely high-scoring spectacle over the full 90 minutes.
My preferred approach is therefore to combine a bet on Germany’s victory over Finland with a maximum of four goals scored in the match. At Bet-at-home, you’ll get odds of 1.74 for this, which I’m betting on with six notional units. Alternatively, you can also bet on the Asian handicap (-1 AHC) at halftime. I expect the World Cup participant to take the lead before halftime and, in general, for more goals to be scored before the break than after the break, when there will likely be many substitutions on both sides.
