Will Portugal Be the Next Favorite to Stumble?
Before the World Cup began, many believed that betting on Portugal—one of the co-favorites from Southern Europe—over the DR Congo was a mere formality. However, as the first matches of this 2026 World Cup have shown, it’s primarily the nominal underdogs who have caused a stir so far. But should we overturn our own Portugal vs. DR Congo prediction just because national teams like Spain, Belgium, or Turkey have fallen short of expectations?
On paper, everything points to Coach Roberto Martinez’s team, which has an incredible array of weapons, especially on offense. Of course, Cristiano Ronaldo continues to play a central role in the media spotlight. In terms of performance, though—and we have to be honest here—the 41-year-old has long since fallen behind his own teammates. Nevertheless, the superstar seems to be a lock for the starting lineup ahead of the first match, which automatically brings the Portugal vs. DR Congo betting odds for a goal by the living legend into play. Betano, one of the best World Cup bookmakers, is offering odds of just 1.62, however—which truly offers no (subjective) value!
That aside, it remains to be seen how long it will take for the Portuguese to break through the Africans’ defensive wall. Like many other underdogs at the World Cup, the 46th-ranked team’s strategy will be to defend with everything they’ve got for as long as possible, regularly lining up with ten players in their own third and thus testing the star-studded squad’s patience to the limit.
Ultimately, however, I still expect that “A Seleção” has too much quality for them not to secure a victory after 90 minutes. Should there be an early goal, it’s also conceivable to consider various handicap bets.
Portugal vs. DR Congo AI Prediction
The AI also sees Portugal as the clear favorite. However, not as clearly as the bookmakers. Instead, the AI even gives the DR Congo a 28% probability of earning a point. Since this exceeds the implied probability of the betting odds, the AI prediction—from a value perspective—should favor the double chance X2 between Portugal and the DR Congo. This is especially true given that Betano is offering a whopping 3.60 as the top odds for this outcome. According to the AI, this seems simply too high considering how the tournament has unfolded.
Portugal – Statistics & Current Form
Despite its relatively short World Cup history, Portugal has long been among the world’s elite. Its greatest success to date has been a fourth-place finish at the 2006 World Cup. However, following its triumph at the 2016 European Championship and its victory in the Nations League last summer, Portugal has definitively established itself as a tournament-winning team—and is once again arriving with a squad that boasts tremendous quality, particularly on offense.
Will Portugal’s offense be firing on all cylinders right from the start?
Their current form is a clear indication that Martinez’s squad is a force to be reckoned with. For example, Portugal has lost only one of its last 13 international matches. Their offensive strength is particularly impressive: In ten of their last 13 matches, the “Seleção” scored at least two goals. They also won their last two World Cup warm-up matches 2–1 each—first against Chile, then against Nigeria. These games showcased the team’s tremendous depth in attack. Against Chile, Bruno Fernandes, Cristiano Ronaldo, Rafael Leão, and Bernardo Silva, among others, repeatedly created danger, while against Nigeria, Pedro Neto and Francisco Conceição scored the goals.
Above all, the individual talent on display in the final third is outstanding. With Bruno Fernandes, Portugal boasts one of Europe’s most creative playmakers, while Bernardo Silva, Rafael Leão, Pedro Neto, Francisco Conceição, and Francisco Trincão are all capable of breaking through in one-on-one situations at any time. Add to that the skills of the two Champions League winners, João Neves and Vitinha, in midfield, as well as the experience of Cristiano Ronaldo, who—despite his advanced age—remains enormously important as a target man and leader.
All in all, the fifth-ranked team in the world has everything it takes to make a deep run in the tournament and to get off to a successful start in their opening match. To bet on the favorite to win with a handicap at average odds of 1.85, you can also take advantage of the numerous no-deposit World Cup free bets. Alternatively, you could bet on the 2016 European champions to score a few goals—perhaps even at least one in each half!
DR Congo – Statistics & Current Form
DR Congo is making history at this World Cup. The “Leopards” are back at a World Cup for the first time since 1974—back then still as Zaire. Overall, this is only the country’s second World Cup appearance in its history. Particularly noteworthy: The Africans secured their spot as one of the very last teams to qualify. It wasn’t until the intercontinental playoffs that coach Sébastien Desabre’s team clinched their World Cup berth, defeating Jamaica 1–0 in extra time thanks to a goal by Axel Tuanzebe. This ended a 52-year wait to return to the world’s biggest soccer stage.
How long can the Congo keep the match close?
However, the team ranked 46th in the world isn’t necessarily a classic underdog. The squad consists almost exclusively of professionals established in Europe. Players like captain Chancel Mbemba, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Axel Tuanzebe, and Arthur Masuaku stabilize the defense, while the team’s greatest strength lies in its offense. There, they have several dangerous forwards at their disposal—including Yoane Wissa, Simon Banza, and Cédric Bakambu—who have gained experience at a high international level. Compared to the top nations, which undoubtedly include Portugal, they still lack world-class individual talent across the board. But the Africans should by no means be underestimated!
Furthermore, their most recent friendly matches ahead of the World Cup were only somewhat convincing. While the DR Congo managed a respectable 0–0 draw against Denmark, this was followed a few days later by a 1–2 loss to Chile—the first time in eleven international matches that the Africans had conceded more than one goal.
On the positive side, the defense remains fundamentally solid and has proven to be a major strength in recent months. However, it’s important to note that the Congolese have rarely faced opponents of Portugal’s caliber recently. I would therefore be very cautious about betting on the underdog and could even imagine Desabre’s team failing to score. You’ll get odds of 1.71 for that at Bwin.
Portugal – DR Congo Head-to-Head Record
The two national teams are facing off in an international match for the first time. For the Portuguese, this is their seventh World Cup match against an African opponent overall. To date, their record stands at three wins, one draw, and two losses—still slightly positive. At the current World Cup, however, only one African team—Tunisia (as of Tuesday morning)—has come up short so far… That said, one shouldn’t project the results of other teams onto this matchup, so the head-to-head record has no relevant impact on the Portugal vs. DR Congo prediction.
Portugal – DR Congo Prediction
Even though this World Cup has held a few surprises so far and supposed underdogs have repeatedly made headlines, I see no reason to fundamentally change my assessment of Portugal vs. DR Congo. The betting odds clearly favor the Portuguese with an implied probability of over 75 percent—and for good reason. Roberto Martínez’s team boasts significantly more individual quality, especially on offense. That’s why a Portugal win remains the most obvious betting option for me, even though the odds on the 1X2 market are unattractive. Creativity is key!
I expect the DR Congo to sit very deep defensively at first and try to keep the game open for as long as possible. However, the Africans have hardly faced any world-class opponents recently. Portugal, on the other hand, has scored at least two goals in ten of its last 13 international matches. My preferred Portugal vs. DR Congo bet is therefore that CR7 and Co. will score at least once in each half. At Betano, you’ll get odds of 2.02, which I’m betting on with four fictional units.
