Part 1 of Benfica’s damage control begins
For Benfica Lisbon, qualifying for the Europa League feels like uncharted territory. The Portuguese side has been a regular in the Champions League for years—they even reached the playoffs of the Champions League in the 2025–26 season—and now, following a rather disappointing domestic campaign last season, they must fight hard to secure their spot in the group stage of the Europa League.
On paper, in the match between St. Gallen and Benfica Lisbon, a bet on “Os Encarnados” is considered the most likely 1X2 outcome; after all, the Portuguese powerhouse’s quality and squad depth clearly speak in its favor. Although the Swiss representative can count on the support of its own fans in the first leg, it enters this matchup as a clear underdog. I, too, am convinced that in the St. Gallen vs. Benfica Lisbon matchup, a bet on the team with far greater international experience will pay off.
Also exciting: A new era is beginning at Benfica Lisbon with Marco Silva. The Portuguese coach is taking over from José Mourinho and, following his successful years at Fulham FC, is arriving in Lisbon with high expectations. Silva was known in the Premier League for his attractive, structured style of play and is now tasked with leading Benfica back to the top of European soccer on a permanent basis.
The club’s management has also reinforced these ambitions in the transfer market, having already invested more than 50 million euros in new players. In particular, the signings of Sudakov and former Cologne player Kaminski underscore the high standards of this storied club. Their preseason has also been promising: Most recently, the “Os Encarnados” celebrated a convincing 2-0 victory over Spanish first-division side and Champions League participant Villarreal. It is therefore entirely understandable that, ahead of the first leg at Kybunpark between St. Gallen and Benfica Lisbon, the odds for an away win are as low as 1.35 at the top of the market. The implied probability of victory stands at nearly 75%.
Although FC St. Gallen earned its place in European competition as the Swiss Cup champion, the team had to cope with a painful departure this summer. With Alessandro Vogt’s move to TSG Hoffenheim—arguably the club’s greatest offensive talent—the team from eastern Switzerland lost a key weapon in attack.
Enrico Maaßen’s team’s preseason preparations were also far from ideal. On the one hand, there were some solid performances; on the other, they suffered two heavy defeats: a 3–6 loss to Olympique Lyon and a 0–3 loss to English second-division side Norwich City. While St. Gallen is generally always capable of pulling off an upset on home turf, I still find the St. Gallen vs. Benfica Lisbon betting odds on the combined X2 with under 3.5 goals to be extremely interesting.
St. Gallen – Benfica Lisbon Head-to-Head Record
There has never been a competitive match between FC St. Gallen and Benfica Lisbon. While the team from eastern Switzerland has primarily competed in the qualifying rounds of the Europa League and Conference League in recent years—most recently failing to advance in the 2020–21 Europa League qualifiers—Benfica has been a fixture in the Champions League for years and even reached the playoffs of the competition in 2025–26.
The fact that the Portuguese side now has to take the detour through the Europa League qualifiers is therefore an absolute exception, especially since Benfica last reached the quarterfinals of the Europa League in the 2023–24 season. Accordingly, their international experience and significantly greater experience at the UEFA level clearly favor the “Os Encarnados.”
St. Gallen – Benfica Lisbon Prediction
Benfica Lisbon is rightly the favorite going into this first leg. The Portuguese side not only boasts a squad that is clearly superior in quality and significantly more valuable, but also brings a wealth of international experience to the table. Despite a disappointing previous season, “Os Encarnados” are essentially a fixture in the Champions League and have injected new energy with Marco Silva—a very interesting, renowned, and new head coach—as well as over 50 million euros in new signings. Facing them is FC St. Gallen, which, while entering the match as the cup champion with home-field advantage, did not entirely convince during preseason and must also compensate for the departure of offensive prospect Alessandro Vogt.
I’m therefore going with the St. Gallen vs. Benfica Lisbon pick: X2 & Under 3.5 goals. Benfica doesn’t need to go all out to seal the deal in the first leg and is likely to play a controlled game with the second leg in mind. At the same time, I expect St. Gallen to adopt a more defensive game plan, especially since this is also the Espen’s first competitive match of the new season. In addition to my preferred pick, HT2/FT2 would also be an interesting alternative if Benfica showcases its individual quality early on. Likewise, I wouldn’t be surprised if Enrico Maaßen’s team goes the full 90 minutes without scoring a goal.
