How much of a challenge will the Slovenians face on home turf?
Neither team has ever advanced to the group stage of the UEFA Champions League. In terms of international experience, however, the Slovenians—who played in the group stage of the Conference League just last season—are far ahead of the Albanians (74 European competitive matches compared to 15). That said, it could prove costly to jump the gun and bet on a home win for the Rumeno-modri (meaning “the Yellow-Blues”) in the Celje vs. Egnatia match.
After all, glaring defensive weaknesses were already evident in the first leg in Albania for the supposed favorites, who promptly and successfully requested that the Slovenian Football Association reschedule their league match set for this weekend so they could fully prepare for this pivotal second leg. The Albanians, who are still waiting for the start of the season in the Kategoria Superiore, were also able to do the same.
Whoever wins this second leg following the turbulent 3-3 draw in the first leg in Rrogozhina will advance to the third qualifying round and is thus guaranteed a spot in the group stage. A loss there would ultimately send the team to the Europa League playoffs, where the loser would then end up in the Conference League group stage. For the Albanians in particular—who have played only 15 international competitive matches so far (all in qualifying rounds)—this would be a groundbreaking success.
Accordingly, we expect the visitors to play an attacking game; they didn’t hold back at any point in the first leg and also won the first qualifying round with a combined score of 7–2 over two legs against the Moldovan champions, Petroclub Hincesti. Therefore, the prevailing prediction for Celje vs. Egnatia is that both teams will score in the second leg as well.
The second half, in particular, could get very heated, as every goal could immediately decide victory or defeat. Given the six goals from last Wednesday, we think it’s quite possible that, after a perhaps relatively quiet first half, both teams will take more risks starting in the second half. We therefore also see good value in betting that at least two more goals will be scored after halftime during regular time.
Celje – Egnatia Head-to-Head Record
Head-to-Head: 0 – 1 – 0
Last Wednesday’s first leg in Albania was the first and only international competitive match between the two teams to date. Thanks to the thrilling 3–3 draw, the head-to-head record between the two teams remains even.
Celje – Egnatia Prediction
While the Albanian champions have certainly proven to be a tough opponent—playing with great confidence after winning their third consecutive league title and now aiming to advance to the European group stage after making it through the first qualifying round of the UEFA Champions League for the first time—the Slovenian champions naturally want to capitalize on their home-field advantage.
However, the first leg showed that NK Celje, under coach Vítor Campelos, is still too vulnerable defensively. Although two-goal scorer Mario Kvesic prevented the situation from getting worse, the three goals conceded were still telling, especially since they had already given up two goals in the Slovenian league opener against Mura (2–2).
If the Albanians play boldly enough on the road, the supposed underdog can definitely be expected to score at least an away goal, regardless of the match’s outcome. Accordingly, it’s an interesting bet to predict that both teams will find the back of the net.
