Will Red Star Lay the Groundwork in Hungary?
Hapoel Beer Sheva and Red Star Belgrade, two reigning national champions, will face off on Tuesday evening in the third qualifying round of the Champions League. On the international stage, however, experience clearly favors the visitors from Serbia. While Hapoel Beer Sheva has never reached the group stage or knockout phase of the Champions League in its club history, Red Star is looking to qualify for the Champions League for the third time in the past four years.
If international experience were the only factor, one would be inclined to bet on the Serbs ahead of the first leg between Hapoel Beer Sheva and Red Star Belgrade. Added to this is the fact that the Israelis’ nominal home-field advantage is once again nullified. Due to the ongoing security situation, UEFA matches are still not permitted to be held in Israel, which is why Hapoel must play its European home games in Szombathely, Hungary, near the Austrian border.
The outlook for the match between Hapoel Beer Sheva and Red Star Belgrade is also influenced by how differently the two teams have performed so far in the current Champions League qualifiers. The Israeli champions struggled to advance to the next round against Icelandic underdog KR Reykjavík. After a surprising 1-2 loss in the first leg, they managed a 2-0 victory in the second leg in Hungary, but even there, Hapoel’s play was far from convincing, and they were even lucky in stoppage time when a penalty kick by the Icelanders was overturned following a VAR review.
Crvena Zvezda’s start was quite different. Dejan Stanković’s team didn’t give Northern Irish representative Larne FC a single chance in their 9-0 aggregate victory. Overall, the Serbs have already played four competitive matches, winning all of them and posting an impressive goal difference of 17-1. Accordingly, the visitors are traveling to Hungary with plenty of confidence and clear momentum.
In terms of quality as well, I see the clear advantage lying with the Serbian record champions. Red Star’s squad is estimated to have a market value roughly six times higher than that of Hapoel Beer Sheva; furthermore, the Serbian champions are already in competitive match rhythm, while the Israeli league doesn’t begin for another two weeks or so.
At the same time, given that the second leg will be played at home next week, Crvena Zvezda doesn’t need to go all out for a win in the first leg; instead, their primary focus will be on securing a favorable starting position.
Hapoel Beer Sheva – Red Star Belgrade Head-to-Head Record
There has never been a competitive match between Hapoel Beer Sheva and Red Star Belgrade. However, the Serbian record champions do have experience facing Israeli clubs: In the 2022 Champions League qualifiers, for example, Crvena Zvezda failed to prevail after two close matches against Maccabi Haifa and narrowly missed advancing to the group stage.
It seems rather unlikely, however, that this fate will repeat itself, especially since, ahead of the Hapoel Beer Sheva vs. Red Star Belgrade match, the betting odds on the Serbs advancing to the Champions League playoffs are significantly lower than those on the Israeli labor movement club.
Hapoel Beer Sheva – Red Star Belgrade Prediction
The Champions League qualification path brings with it exciting matches. Among others, the title holders from Israel and Serbia will face off, even though they come into the match with different international backgrounds. While the Israelis barely scraped by in their previous match against Reykjavik and, as is well known, must once again forgo home-field advantage, Crvena Zvezda is already in impressive early form. Four competitive matches, four wins, and a goal difference of 17–1 speak in the Serbs’ favor, as does their significantly greater experience on the European stage. Consequently, I see the reigning Serbian champions as slight favorites heading into this first leg.
I believe the visitors are capable of securing a solid starting position for the second leg, but at the same time, I don’t expect an open, back-and-forth battle, as both teams are likely to manage their risks in the first of two matches. For those who prefer the classic 1X2 market, an away win by Red Star Belgrade at odds around 1.90 is also an interesting alternative. I’m therefore opting for the X2 & Under 3.5 goals bet in the match between Hapoel Beer Sheva and Red Star Belgrade.
