Another upset by the ‘Tigers’?
My Newcastle vs. Hull prediction analysis focuses on an exciting matchup on Matchday 5 of the Premier League. On Saturday, September 19, 2026, at 4:00 p.m., the Magpies will host newly promoted Hull City. Newcastle must bounce back from a crushing 0-4 loss to Leeds, while Hull, the surprise team of the season, remains undefeated.
The bookmakers’ Newcastle vs. Hull predictions clearly favor the home team, but the Tigers have already proven they can hold their own against the big clubs. With eight points from four games—including a win over Manchester United and a 2–2 draw at Chelsea—Sergej Jakirovic’s team is traveling with confidence. For Newcastle, the goal is to secure their first home win of the season after two consecutive draws.
The Newcastle vs. Hull betting odds reflect expectations of a home win, which creates an interesting dynamic given both teams’ recent results. Newcastle is strong offensively at home but also vulnerable defensively.
Hull, on the other hand, has shown that they can score goals on the road as well. Therefore, I recommend taking a look at the goals market, where I see the best value.
Newcastle vs. Hull AI Prediction
For my Newcastle vs. Hull AI prediction, I’m consulting the AI model, which provides us with a data-driven assessment. The model calculates a 63.2% probability of a Newcastle win, while a draw stands at 20.0% and a Hull win at just 16.8%. These figures largely align with the bookmakers’ odds, which imply a roughly 62% chance of victory for the home team.
The expected goals (xG) are particularly interesting: AI predicts 2.00 goals for Newcastle and 0.92 for Hull, resulting in a total of 2.92. This points to a high-scoring game and supports the assumption that both teams could find the back of the net. Although the win market offers little value, the AI confirms the potential for an entertaining match with goals at both ends.
Newcastle – Hull Head-to-Head Record
The last head-to-head match took place in the 2016 EFL Cup, where Hull prevailed in a penalty shootout. The most recent Premier League clash at St. James’ Park ended in a 2–2 draw in 2014. Historically, Newcastle holds the edge with twelve wins to Hull’s seven.
In four of the last five matches between the two teams, both sides have found the back of the net. These games have also been high-scoring, averaging 3.8 goals per match. The Newcastle vs. Hull odds for both teams to score therefore look promising from a historical perspective as well.
Newcastle – Hull Pick
Newcastle’s defense has been a major cause for concern this season. With an expected goals against (xGA) of 7.55 and the most shots allowed in the league (76), there are clear weaknesses. At the same time, the Magpies are strong offensively at home and have scored in eleven of their last twelve Premier League home games.
My final Newcastle vs. Hull prediction therefore focuses on the bet that both teams will score. Newcastle’s home games are often high-scoring, as their strong offense cannot always compensate for their defensive vulnerabilities.
