Another setback for the Reds in the Merseyside Derby?
Liverpool FC could set a new record on Sunday afternoon! The Reds are on the verge of becoming the first team in Premier League history to celebrate a victory in 60 different stadiums in England’s top flight. For the first time ever, Hill Dickinson Stadium, Everton FC’s new, modern home ground, will host the highly anticipated Merseyside Derby, which is already generating plenty of buzz in the run-up to the match.
The league standings alone ensure that the Everton vs. Liverpool prediction for the upcoming clash could have a significant impact on the season’s final stretch in England. Only five points currently separate the two city rivals. The Toffees are hoping for a comeback in international competition, while for LFC, following their Champions League exit against Paris St. Germain, the only goal left is to qualify for the Champions League again in 2026/27.
The problem, from the perspective of the team led by manager Arne Slot—who continues to face heavy criticism—is that their recent away performances offer little encouragement for the upcoming match. Quite the contrary, as the (still) reigning champions have lost all four of their most recent competitive away matches. In total, they managed to score just one goal. In the Premier League, the fifth-place team has also managed just three wins in their last nine away matches.
Looking at the details, LFC has just three wins in their last 22 PL away matches against opponents who were in the top half of the table before the start of the matchday—similar to Everton Football Club on Sunday. Against this backdrop, I venture the Everton vs. Liverpool prediction that the severely struggling Slot XI will also fail to win the Merseyside Derby on Matchday 33.
Another sensible approach might be to consider the odds on under goals between Everton and Liverpool. In four of their last six PL away games, LFC scored a maximum of one goal. Meanwhile, Everton—along with Sunderland and Crystal Palace—is the team in the English top flight with the fewest goals scored in matches they’re involved in. The average in Toffees games is just 2.38 goals. In four of their most recent six home games at Hill Dickinson Stadium, the under 2.5 would have come in.
Furthermore, given that the derby atmosphere certainly plays a role that shouldn’t be underestimated, both clubs are desperate to avoid a loss given their league positions, and to make matters worse, LFC will be without their most dangerous attacker, Hugo Ekitike, who suffered a torn Achilles tendon in Tuesday’s Champions League match, the arguments clearly favor the Everton vs. Liverpool betting odds on Under 2.5, which currently stand at 1.91 at Betano.
Everton – Liverpool Head-to-Head Record
Of the last 14 PL matches, Everton has won only one against Liverpool.
That said, the Blues have also suffered only three losses. Conversely, this means that ten of the 14 aforementioned encounters ended in a draw. Should there be no winner on Sunday either, a payout of 3.40 will be offered at bet365.
Betting on a home win for the Toffees, on the other hand, would involve a great deal of risk. At least from a historical perspective, as Everton Football Club has won only three of the past 52 (!) Merseyside derbies against their big city rivals (3-20-27).
Everton – Liverpool Prediction
Thanks to last week’s 2-0 home win against Fulham and Chelsea’s loss to Manchester City (0-3), Liverpool FC has temporarily solidified its fifth-place position in the Premier League. However, the cushion over the competition remains precarious.
The Reds definitely cannot afford many slip-ups in the final stretch of this season. Another tough challenge awaits the team on Sunday. The Merseyside Derby is coming up—for the first time, incidentally, at Hill Dickinson Stadium, where the Toffees have won their last two matches in a row.
Ahead of this match, I also wouldn’t rule out an upset by the home team, so I’m keeping an eye on the Double Chance 1X, but especially the X after 90 minutes. Furthermore, I don’t expect a goal fest, but rather a closely contested match between two evenly matched sides. My Everton vs. Liverpool tip is therefore for Under 2.5 goals.
