Will Freiburg reach the Europa League final?
With Eintracht Frankfurt (2022) and Bayer Leverkusen (2024), two German clubs have made it to the UEFA Europa League final in the past four years. SC Freiburg now aims to become the third Bundesliga club to achieve this in 2026.
Although their position has worsened somewhat following the late 1-2 loss in the first leg at SC Braga, coach Julian Schuster’s team still has the hope and belief that they can now make up for the narrow deficit in front of their home crowd. I share this conviction and, ahead of Freiburg’s second leg against Braga, am leaning toward predicting that the Breisgauers will reach the final!
The Sport-Club’s home form can be cited as the main argument here. The South Germans have won all of their last ten (!) Europa League home games with a combined goal difference of 28:4. In the current season, the Sport-Club has played six Europa League matches at home, securing six wins, scoring 14 goals, and keeping a clean sheet four times. Should the prediction of a home win also come true on Thursday evening between Freiburg and Braga, SCF would equal the competition record of eleven consecutive home wins, set by multiple title holders FC Sevilla (2014 to 2016).
Since the first leg, as mentioned, was lost by just one goal and European competition rules have, as is well known, moved away from the away goals rule, a single win on the 1X2 market after 90 minutes would already be enough to force extra time.
Another factor that could work in the home team’s favor is the fact that the visitors will be without Ricardo Horta, an extremely important player, due to injury. Aside from that, the northern Portuguese side has shown some weaknesses on the road in their Europa League campaign so far. In the quarterfinals, for example, “Os Arsenalistas” lost 0-2 at Ferencvaros Budapest, and in the group stage, they dropped points against teams like Go Ahead Eagles and Glasgow Rangers.
The 4-2 away win in the quarterfinals at Betis Sevilla was also a huge surprise and came about primarily due to outstanding efficiency. It therefore remains to be seen whether the team led by coach Carlos Vicens, who worked for years as Pep Guardiola’s assistant, can once again make the most of their potential on Thursday.
Freiburg – Braga Head-to-Head Record
The first leg a week ago was very evenly matched at the start. Vincenzo Grifo equalized the Portuguese side’s early lead to make it 1-1 following a perfectly executed counterattack, before Atubolu saved a penalty just before the halftime whistle. Just as it looked like the game was heading for a 1-1 draw, substitute Mario Dorgeles capitalized on a lapse in the SCF defense and scored the 2-1 winner for Sporting Clube virtually at the final whistle.
Thus, the Sport-Club remained winless in its third attempt against a Portuguese opponent (0-2-1). Braga, meanwhile, continues to boast a positive record against German clubs (6-3-5), although in my view, the historical head-to-head record does not decisively influence Thursday’s Freiburg vs. Braga betting odds.
Freiburg – Braga Prediction
The last three Portuguese clubs to win their first leg in a UEFA Europa League knockout round were eliminated after losing the second leg. However, this is just one of several reasons why, in my opinion, the odds will tip in favor of SC Freiburg in Thursday night’s Europa League semifinal second leg.
The Sport-Club is brutally strong at home, having recorded nothing but wins in international competition at home this season and having trailed for a total of just 120 minutes throughout the entire Europa League campaign—the best record of any team.
On top of that, the match a week ago already showed that SCF has absolutely no reason to hide when it comes to quality. In front of their own fans, Schuster’s team will gain even more control, while Braga, with their similarly possession-based style of play, will face a tougher challenge. That’s why I’m not only predicting a home win after 90 minutes, but with my Freiburg vs. Braga tip, I’m also betting that the Sport-Club will make it to the final after all.
