Can SC Freiburg halt their downward slide?

While VfL Wolfsburg has found new hope in the relegation battle and picked up four out of a possible six points from its last two league games, SC Freiburg is in deep trouble. The Breisgau side suffered an unfortunate defeat in the DFB-Pokal semifinal, were subsequently crushed 0-4 in Dortmund, and have now also suffered a last-minute defeat (1-2) in the Europa League semifinal in Braga.

After three consecutive losses in competitive matches, a home win for Freiburg against Wolfsburg is by no means a sure thing, even though they’re facing their favorite opponent. The Sport-Club has beaten no other Bundesliga team more often than the Wolves.

However, the Lower Saxony side, threatened with relegation, has turned things around and also won their most recent away match at Union Berlin 2-1. They are now just one point behind the relegation playoff spot, and naturally, VfL will try to capitalize on Freiburg’s current double burden.

That said, we’re hesitant to predict an away win for the Lower Saxons in the Freiburg vs. Wolfsburg match, as they’ve managed a paltry seven points in the second half of the season and remain one of the Bundesliga’s most out-of-form teams.

The first leg was already an extremely lively affair between the two teams, with the Sport-Club securing a 4-3 away win at the Volkswagen Arena. Therefore, a neutral prediction would suggest that there will once again be over 2.5 goals scored between the two teams, a total that has been surpassed in three of their last four meetings.

Freiburg vs. Wolfsburg AI Prediction

While we would prefer to steer clear of the three-way system given Freiburg’s recent losing streak and the important second leg against SC Braga on the horizon, the AI prediction for Freiburg vs. Wolfsburg clearly points to a home win.

Betano is offering odds of 2.55 for a home win by the Black Forest side, implying a probability of 39.2 percent. The AI, on the other hand, calculates a 47 percent chance for SCF to win this home game. That is significantly higher and thus offers plenty of value.

Freiburg – Statistics & Current Form

SC Freiburg is actually having a sensational season, but now needs to get back on track very quickly. First, the Black Forest side suffered an unfortunate extra-time defeat to VfB Stuttgart in the DFB Cup semifinals, and then, despite a strong performance, they lost the first leg of the Europa League semifinals 1-2 to SC Braga due to a last-minute goal, meaning they now absolutely must win at home in the second leg this coming Thursday.

In between, they also suffered a 0-4 thrashing in Dortmund in the Bundesliga. Three consecutive losses have resulted in the top bookmakers’ odds for a Freiburg home win against Wolfsburg rising significantly. And yet: despite individual setbacks, Freiburg has shown remarkable resilience throughout the season. Especially after difficult stretches, the team regularly manages to get back on track.

Freiburg with mental strength

Their mental stability remains striking. Especially after falling behind. Freiburg has earned 19 points after trailing. Only FC Bayern has a better record. This underscores the team’s ability to turn games around even in difficult phases.

Defensively, however, weaknesses are evident on set pieces. They have conceded 17 goals from set pieces, 14 of them from corners alone—the highest in the league. At the same time, Julian Schuster’s team is flawless in terms of points: Freiburg is the only team not to have conceded a penalty goal yet, thanks in part to a strong Noah Atubolu, who even saved a penalty against SC Braga during the week.

Wolfsburg – Statistics & Current Form

VfL Wolfsburg is having a historically poor season. With 25 points after 31 games, the Lower Saxony side is in worse shape than ever before in the top flight. The second half of the season has been particularly disappointing: just one win and seven points from 14 games.

Recently, however, there has been a slight stabilization under interim coach Dieter Hecking, who did not have a strong start. Four points from the last two games, along with their first clean sheet since October, could be a small sign that a bet on an away win in Breisgau against Freiburg seems slightly more likely than it did two weeks ago.

Wolfsburg is leaving too many points on the table

The Wolves’ biggest problem, however, remains their lack of control after taking the lead. 31 points dropped after taking the lead is the highest figure in the league and reflects their lack of stability.

Defensively, too, there are clear weaknesses. 23 goals conceded from set pieces is a record—but in a negative sense. At least a streak of 22 games conceding at least one goal has finally come to an end. Individually, players like Maximilian Arnold stand out, while Dzenan Pejcinovic made a statement with his hat trick in the first-leg match despite the loss.

Freiburg – Wolfsburg Head-to-Head Record

Head to Head: 19 – 11 – 17

A total of 47 matches have been played between the two teams, and SC Freiburg leads the head-to-head record with 19 wins.
The Black Forest side already won the turbulent first leg at VfL Wolfsburg 4-3 and have beaten the Lower Saxony side in seven of their last nine Bundesliga clashes (two losses). In fact, the Sport-Club has celebrated more wins against the Wolves (19) than against any other team in the Bundesliga.

Freiburg – Wolfsburg Prediction

Generally speaking, the prediction for Freiburg vs. Wolfsburg must lean toward the home-strong Breisgauers, who have won eight of their 15 Bundesliga home games in 2025/26 (four draws, three losses) and now host a declared favorite opponent. Under Julian Schuster, Freiburg has won all three Bundesliga matches against the Wolves so far, who, with only 25 points to their name, are currently in a direct relegation spot. However, the Green-Whites have proven with four out of six possible points from their last two matches that they are not yet ready to accept their fate.

The Sport-Club also has the second leg against SC Braga in the back of their minds, as nothing less than a spot in the Europa League final is at stake this coming Thursday. As a result, the risk of a slip-up is very real for the Breisgau side, who could certainly use the three points in the Bundesliga as they battle for a Conference League spot. However, we don’t think the Wolves are capable of more than a draw. Since we expect goals, we therefore recommend the combined bet on Double Chance 1X with over 1.5 goals. For this match combo, Betano is offering odds of 1.65 on Freiburg vs. Wolfsburg, which we’re betting five out of ten units on.