No Chance for the Zverev-Beater?

The Australian, listed first, has unexpectedly reached the final, unlike the Spaniard, who is seeded No. 2 in the tournament. However, thanks to a 2-1 victory in the previous semifinal, he knocked out the newly crowned world No. 1, Alexander Zverev.

At the same time, it was his third win in the last four matches against the Hamburg native, who appears to have found a new nemesis in him. De Minaur, however, won by a narrow margin thanks to a successful tiebreak in the decisive third set. The match took a lot out of him, while Alcaraz won his semifinal in two sets, just as he had in the three previous rounds.

Alex de Minaur – Carlos Alcaraz Head-to-Head Record

Carlos Alcaraz and de Minaur have faced each other six times so far, and the Spaniard has come out on top every time. Furthermore, he has won four of their last five meetings without dropping a set. Their most recent matchup took place in January of this year at the Australian Open.

Alcaraz won decisively 3-0, dropping only eight games. For the upcoming match between Carlos Alcaraz and Alex de Minaur, the odds also point toward this balance of power continuing.

Alex de Minaur vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz has been flawless at the 2026 ATP Vienna: He hasn’t dropped a single set in his four matches, and his most recent victory over Daniil Medvedev deserves special mention. The Russian had been in strong form leading up to the tournament and had recently won the Almaty Open in Kazakhstan—his fourth title this year following previous triumphs in Brisbane, Dubai, and Hangzhou.

He also reached the semifinals twice on his China swing—at the tournaments in Beijing and Shanghai—leading up to the Vienna tournament. Nevertheless, Alcaraz won in two sets, once again confirming his own consistent form. Since his comeback at the US Open last August after a roughly four-month injury layoff, Alcaraz has lost only two of 17 matches and claimed the Japan Open title in early October.

In his first appearance in Vienna since losing the semifinal to Alex Zverev in 2021, he clearly has his sights set just as high. Although his upcoming opponent recently knocked out the Hamburg native mentioned above, we consider the Spaniard to be the significantly stronger player. With that in mind, the betting odds for a 2-0 victory by the world No. 3 in the match between Alex de Minaur and Carlos Alcaraz seem worth considering.