Can Chelsea knock out the CL winners?

Which team is currently in pole position in the battle for the Henkelpott? The defending champions from Paris looked vulnerable in the weeks leading up to our PSG vs. Chelsea tip, losing their dress rehearsal against AS Monaco last weekend (1-3), among other things.

Their lead over Lens in the national league competition has shrunk to just one point again. “Les Parisiens” do not look like a superior team – especially not in the Champions League. We also see the hosts as vulnerable in this PSG vs. Chelsea prediction.

Unlike Luis Enrique’s team, the Blues avoided additional stress. Thanks to a 3-2 comeback win against Napoli on the last matchday of the Champions League group stage, the visitors from Stamford Bridge advanced directly to the round of 16.

In any case, the men in blue jerseys from the British Isles made a strong impression in the second half of the CL league phase. Chelsea won three of their last four matches and even inflicted a 3-0 defeat on FC Barcelona.

PSG vs. Chelsea prediction AI

Among all Champions League participants, the defending champions from the French capital have scored the most goals (26). In addition, the leaders of Ligue 1 have collected the most expected goals in the current competition (23.2 xG). Defensively, Enrique’s players have been less convincing so far, conceding 15 goals (17th). This prompts our artificial intelligence to predict more than three goals in the first leg of the round of 16 between PSG and Chelsea.

Paris Saint Germain – Statistics & current form

To say that the French side has had a successful start to the Champions League would be an understatement in view of their initial results. PSG won 4-0 against Atalanta Bergamo on the first matchday of the league phase. This was followed by a 2-1 triumph against FC Barcelona and then a magnificent 7-2 victory against an indisposed Werkself from Leverkusen.

On the fourth matchday, however, German record champions Bayern Munich revealed a certain vulnerability in the defending champions for the first time, and that in their own living room. On their home turf at the Parc des Princes, “Les Parisiens” suffered a 2-1 defeat.

The home side emerged victorious only twice from the six subsequent Champions League matches. Tottenham were beaten 5-3 and Monaco were narrowly defeated 3-2 in the first leg of the intermediate round. In addition, there were three draws (0-0 vs. Athletic Bilbao, 1-1 vs. Newcastle, 2-2 vs. Monaco) and a defeat against Sporting Lisbon (1-2).

Not at full strength

Our PSG vs. Chelsea prediction leaves the door open for another winless Champions League match for the defending champions – and for good reason. Head coach Luis Enrique has rarely had his entire squad at his disposal this season. There are also limitations ahead of the first leg of the round of 16.

Ousmane Dembele got at least 30 minutes during the recent defeat to Monaco (1-3), but there are question marks behind him. Fabian Ruiz has been out since the beginning of January and will also have to sit out this week. Joao Neves is expected to return to the squad at least, but due to his ankle, he is unlikely to be available for a full game at CL level.

It is quite possible that PSG will have to relinquish control in midfield to the Blues. Last weekend’s defeat also confirmed once again that the Parc des Princes is not a safe haven. PSG lost their first home game of the Ligue 1 season against Monaco. At Champions League level, the hosts have won only two of five games in their own arena (2D, 1L).

Chelsea – Statistics & current form

Liam Rosenior has been on the bench for the Blues for 15 competitive games. On average, the 41-year-old has earned 2.13 points per game with his employer in these matches. Two of these 15 games took place in the Champions League – both ended in victory.

Pafos (1-0) and Napoli (3-2) were beaten, securing a direct ticket to the round of 16. The Blues are not only talented, but dangerous for any opponent. Although Estevao and Jamie Gittens will be missing against PSG, Rosenior has outstanding players at his disposal.

During the CL group stage, Chelsea did not concede a single goal from a set piece. Only Liverpool and Arsenal have managed to do that. In addition, the visitors are currently one of the six best defenses in this CL season (9.23 xGA).

How many shots do the Blues allow?

The Blues rarely control the game for long periods of time, but their opponents at the highest level are still warned. Don’t be put off by their somewhat shaky performance in the fifth round of the FA Cup (4-2 win against Wrexham after extra time).

Chelsea have been impressive in the Champions League, conceding the fewest number of opponent touches in their own penalty area (135) of any team. Like PSG (8.0 PPDA – the lowest in the CL), the Londoners rely on intense pressing (9.8 PPDA – the second lowest) and a high defensive line.

Unlike PSG (91 shots allowed), however, the team from Stamford Bridge has allowed significantly fewer shots on goal (68 – second-best). Added to this are above-average abilities in crunch time. Chelsea has not conceded a goal in the opening quarter of an hour 1 and has conceded only one goal in the last 15 minutes of a Champions League game 1.

PSG – Chelsea Head-to-head record / H2H record

The last meeting between the two sides was in the final of the FIFA Club World Cup. Chelsea won 3-0 and Enzo Maresca celebrated his second title of the season after winning the Conference League. The Italian has since handed over his job to Liam Rosenior, who has lost only three of 15 games with the Blues – all against Arsenal.

PSG – Chelsea Tip

As in several other Champions League games this season, the hosts cannot afford to squander chances. PSG converted only 28.6 percent of their clear-cut chances. However, there won’t be too many of those in a direct duel with the in-form Londoners.

The defensive department of Luis Enrique’s team could be the sticking point. Les Parisiens have already conceded 15 goals – nine of them before the end of the first half (30th minute). Their expected defensive performance (12.6 xGA) is one of the weakest of all the title contenders.

In addition, confidence has fallen significantly recently. The hosts have won only three of their last six competitive games and lost two of their last four Ligue 1 matches (1-3 against Rennes and Monaco). Chelsea, on the other hand, recently impressed in the Premier League against Aston Villa (4-1) and rested some key players in the FA Cup against Wrexham.