Will VfB Stuttgart get off to a successful start at home?

Two German teams have made it through to the round of 16 in the UEFA Europa League. Both VfB Stuttgart and SC Freiburg have a good chance of reaching the quarterfinals, although the Swabians in particular have been handed a difficult task.

FC Porto are the current leaders of the Portuguese league and, under their new Italian coach Francesco Farioli, have lost only four of 39 (!) competitive games throughout the season. In recent weeks, however, the Dragons have been on a slight downward trend, especially away from home. This is precisely where the Bundesliga club has a chance to set the course for advancement with a successful VfB Stuttgart vs. Porto tip on a home win.

In total, Porto has won only three of its last seven competitive games (two draws, two defeats). On Sunday, the league leaders also squandered what looked like a certain away win at Benfica Lisbon and, after leading 2-0 at one stage, had to settle for a 2-2 draw in the capital. Across all competitions, they have only managed one win in their last five away games (1-2-2). Even in the Europa League group stage, in which they finished fifth to qualify directly for the round of 16, the Blue and Whites went three games without a win on the road.

To make matters worse, the former Champions League winners have won only one of their last 21 knockout away games in European competition (1-6-14). However, that victory was five years ago. These statistics provide initial clues as to why I recommend betting on the hosts in the first leg between VfB Stuttgart and Porto at the MHP Arena.

Logically, my argument in favor of VfB Stuttgart is not based solely on the Portuguese team’s downward trend in form. Coach Sebastian Hoeneß’s team has enough quality to put itself in a good position, especially in front of its own fans.

In the Bundesliga, the Swabians are one of the best home teams with 29 out of a possible 36 points and have also conceded the fewest goals. Looking at the EL league phase, VfB was even the strongest home team overall! First place in the four-match home table was due to four wins and 11:5 goals. No other club in the second most important club competition scored more often at home in the preliminary round than Deniz Undav and Co.

Speaking of Undav: The German international has created the most scoring chances from open play (19) in the Europa League so far. His six assists from open play are also the best in the competition.
It is quite possible that the striker will now return to the scoresheet. Undav has found the net in four of his last six competitive games, and the 29-year-old has been involved in at least one goal in eight of his last eleven competitive games. Given his strong form, I am focusing my additional attention on the VfB Stuttgart vs. Porto odds on Undav as a goalscorer.

VfB Stuttgart – Porto Head-to-head record

VfB Stuttgart and FC Porto are facing each other in an official competitive match at European level for the first time. After 15 years, the Swabians are once again facing a representative from Portugal in the European Cup. In the round of 32 of the 2010/11 Europa League, however, Stuttgart were eliminated after two defeats in the first and second legs against Benfica Lisbon. Porto, meanwhile, have won three consecutive games against clubs from Germany. However, the head-to-head record is not particularly relevant to the upcoming match or the VfB Stuttgart vs. Porto betting odds on the 1X2 market.

VfB Stuttgart – Porto Tip

One of the most exciting matches in the UEFA Europa League round of 16 will take place on Thursday evening in Stuttgart. VfB, currently fourth in the German league and well on their way to qualifying for the 2026/27 Champions League, will face FC Porto, who lead the Portuguese league but have recently suffered a slight dip in form.

Farioli’s team has won only three of its last seven competitive games, with just one away win in its last five matches across all competitions. Above all, the injury to top striker Samu has thrown the Dragons off balance more than expected.

Because VfB Stuttgart also has an outstanding home record, winning nine of twelve games in front of their own fans in the Bundesliga, for example, and even winning all four games at the MHP Arena in the EL league phase, I see good chances for a home win between VfB Stuttgart and Porto.