Will the Basques capitalize on the Blancos’ slump?
Morale is at an all-time low for Spain’s record champions and the record-holding Champions League winners. After four consecutive competitive matches without a win (one draw, three losses), it is now virtually certain that the 2025/26 season will end without a title. In the Champions League, the Royals fell to Bayern, and in La Liga, two lackluster performances against Mallorca (1-2) and Girona (1-1) left them nine points behind league leaders Barcelona. Regardless of whether Real Madrid’s home win against Alavés comes to fruition or not, this deficit will be virtually impossible to make up over the remaining seven matchdays.
Meanwhile, following the coaching change in early March, Deportivo Alavés is hoping to somehow avoid relegation. After four La Liga matches without a loss (one win, three draws), the Babazorros are currently above the relegation line, but as 17th in the table, they are just a single point ahead of the first relegation spot. An away win at the Santiago Bernabéu would therefore be worth its weight in gold for the Basques, who are, after all, ranked 13th in the La Liga away table. Speculating on a draw with a defensive strategy will certainly not work out. Against this backdrop, we expect a bold visiting team and are betting that the Albiazules will score at least one away goal.
Whether a goal by the Babazorros at the Bernabéu will truly be enough to earn a point is uncertain. However, we don’t see value in bets on that outcome. After all, the Blancos had six days to lick their wounds following the 3-4 loss to Bayern. It certainly isn’t out of the question that they’ll now mount a defiant response and vent their pent-up frustration on the Basques, who, however, are coming to the capital in strong form. Otherwise, FC Barcelona is the only other team in the league that has also gone four league games without a loss.
Real Madrid – Alaves Head-to-Head Record
Head to Head: 37 – 3 – 5
The two clubs have faced each other in 45 competitive matches so far, and with 37 wins, Real Madrid clearly leads the head-to-head record. The Blancos have also won all of their last eight La Liga matches against Deportivo Alavés. However, the Basques certainly know what it’s like to secure an away win at the Bernabéu. In November 2020, the Babazorros managed a 2-1 away victory at Madrid’s soccer temple—albeit in front of empty stands during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Real Madrid – Alaves Prediction
On paper, the prediction for Real Madrid vs. Alaves naturally points to a win for Los Blancos, though their season is effectively over after four consecutive competitive matches without a win (one draw, three losses). Their only remaining title hopes lie in La Liga, where they’d have to make up a nine-point deficit and an 18-goal goal difference with just seven matchdays left. FC Barcelona, who have also been eliminated from all other competitions, will certainly not let that slip away. In that regard, there’s a wide range of possibilities regarding how the “White Ballet” will perform six days after the Bayern Munich defeat. A lackluster performance is just as conceivable as a “now more than ever” mentality.
In any case, the Basques, who need more points with just a one-point lead over the first relegation spot, will certainly be actively involved in the action. Given that the Blancos haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last seven competitive matches, we see the greatest value in betting that the Babazorros will score at least one goal at the Bernabéu. For over 0.5 away goals, Betano is offering odds of 1.78 on Real Madrid vs. Alavés, which we’re backing with four out of ten units.
