Will Sascha take this must-win match seriously?
The German enters as the No. 2 seed and has a special connection to La Caja Mágica. At no other major tournament does the Hamburg native, who has already secured the overall title in Madrid twice in 2018 and 2021, boast such an astronomical win rate (81 percent). Sascha has won 25 of his 31 singles matches played here, which is why the tip for Mariano Navone vs. Alexander Zverev clearly favors a victory for the world No. 3.
Mariano Navone, currently ranked 45th in the world, is certainly a tough opponent and is considered a typical representative of the Argentine school, meaning he feels most at home on red clay. However, the classic clay-court scrapper not only has little experience at the Masters level but has also never beaten a top-10 player in his career in just four attempts.
Added to this is the fact that the Madrid clay court is the fastest on the ATP Tour due to the thin air (elevation of approx. 667 meters), which in turn makes the German’s hard serves and flat groundstrokes even more effective. Even a single set win by the Argentine would be a surprise. We therefore recommend betting on a 2-0 victory for the Hamburg native.
It’s clear that Mariano Navone, whose strengths lie in his footwork and spin, will try to draw the German into long rallies and force him into forehand errors. In fact, he has already driven several top players to despair with his extreme topspin variations. However, Sascha usually doesn’t get drawn into such games and maintains the right balance of patience and aggression. Add to that his explosive power on first serve, which means the Argentine is unlikely to have many break opportunities. As a result, even close sets with tiebreaks are rather unlikely.
Mariano Navone – Alexander Zverev Head-to-Head Record
Head to Head: 0:0
The two players have never faced each other in a ranked singles match before. Therefore, there is currently no “head-to-head” data available that could influence our prediction for Mariano Navone vs. Alexander Zverev.
Mariano Navone – Alexander Zverev Prediction
Mariano Navone must try to slow down the pace against Alexander Zverev. After all, his only realistic chance lies in the German eventually getting frustrated, resorting to rushed attempts at winners, and thereby committing too many unforced errors. Especially in Madrid, however, the two-time overall champion will certainly not let himself be forced into such a match, especially since the comparatively faster-than-average clay court will ensure that Sascha rakes in numerous free points on his own serve, which in turn could quickly pull the plug on the Argentine clay-court specialist.
We therefore do not expect Sascha to face any trouble in his opening match. Rather, the German is likely to secure a relatively comfortable 2-0 victory at his signature tournament, where he has won 81 percent of all singles matches played, for which Betano is offering odds of 1.65 on Mariano Navone vs. Alexander Zverev. We are investing six out of ten units on this bet.
