Will Sinner falter in the third round as well?
Jannik Sinner has extended his impressive streak to 23 consecutive singles wins at Masters tournaments, but he dropped the first set in his opening match against French qualifier Benjamin Bonzi. He did turn things around afterward, but early fatigue was once again evident at the start of the match—a trend that was also noticeable during his tournament victory in Monte Carlo.
Despite his dominant performances, the Sextner doesn’t seem to be physically at 100 percent. This makes it all the more interesting to bet that the Danish underdog might take a set off Jannik Sinner in their match against Elmer Möller.
Elmer Möller is considered Denmark’s next big tennis hope after Holger Rune. The rising star is now facing a top-10 player for the first time in his still-young career and is immediately pitted against the world number one. It’s the biggest match of his career, and the man from Aarhus has absolutely nothing to lose, which certainly makes him dangerous.
If the thin air of Madrid—which makes the game fast despite the clay—also plays into the hands of the massive underdog, an upset could be in the cards. Given the astronomical odds, we’re taking a risk and recommending the Sinner vs. Möller prediction that this match will go the full distance of three sets.
Admittedly, Jannik Sinner stepped up his game after losing the first set in a tiebreak against Benjamin Bonzi and conceded just five points on his own serve in the second set. Nevertheless, Elmer Möller has also already found his rhythm. Not only did the Dane successfully fight his way through qualifying, but he also eliminated seeded player Gabriel Diallo in the main draw after taking down Italian Federico Cinà.
Since the bet365 app is offering odds of 9.00 on Jannik Sinner vs. Elmer Möller for the 22-year-old Dane to take a set off the world No. 1, there is value to be found even at a probability of just 12 percent. And we definitely rate the probability that the South Tyrolean will once again get off to a slow start and lack footwork as higher.
Jannik Sinner – Elmer Möller Head-to-Head Record
Head to Head: 0:0
The two players have never faced each other in a ranked singles match on the ATP Tour. Therefore, there is currently no “head-to-head” data available that could influence our prediction for Jannik Sinner vs. Elmer Möller.
Jannik Sinner – Elmer Möller Prediction
On paper, in this “David vs. Goliath” matchup—with such a wide ranking gap (the world No. 1 facing the No. 169)—everything points to Jannik Sinner cruising into the next round. However, the Italian already looked tired at times during his tournament victory in Monte Carlo. An impression that was confirmed in his opening match against Benjamin Bonzi, when he dropped the first set.
Since the odds for the South Tyrolean’s 2-0 victory are listed in the range of just 1.05 to 1.07, there is absolutely no value to be found here. In an effort to keep the risk as low as possible, we are therefore betting that this match will go the full distance of three sets.
For over 2.5 sets, Bet-at-home is offering odds of 6.50 on Jannik Sinner vs. Elmer Möller, which we’re betting on with a minimum stake of one unit.
