Will the Sextner cruise to another record?
Following in the footsteps of Sebastian Ofner, Alexei Popyrin, and Andrea Pellegrino, Andrey Rublev is now trying his luck and aims to upset the currently unbeatable world No. 1, Jannik Sinner, at the Foro Italico in Rome. With 31 consecutive singles wins at the Masters level, the South Tyrolean is now looking to win the fifth Masters tournament of the 2026 season, following his tournament victories in Indian Wells, Miami, Monte Carlo, and Madrid.
No other player has ever achieved this before him. Basically, in the match between Jannik Sinner and Andrey Rublev, the bet that the Italian local hero will advance to the semifinals is also relatively a no-brainer.
The fact that the Moscow native has mostly been denied major titles is also related to the fact that he has won only 35.1 percent of all matches against other top-10 players in his career. In 2026 as well, he lost both matches against opponents from the current top 10 of the ATP world rankings. There is therefore no value to be found in any underdog bets, which is why we’re sticking with our prediction of a 2-0 victory for the world No. 1, who is in a league of his own.
Those looking for higher odds on Jannik Sinner vs. Andrey Rublev might consider the possibility that the Russian could force the Italian into a tiebreak in at least one set. The Muscovite feels quite at home on clay and has won both of his singles Grand Slam titles on this surface (2023 Monte Carlo Masters and 2024 Madrid Masters). If he can raise his first-serve percentage above 70% and show the necessary mental toughness in clutch moments, he could very well pull off an upset. While the Sextner has rarely lost his service games, he has conceded quite a few break points. He saved only around 75% of all break points in 2026. This is exactly where Rublev needs to pounce.
The probability of over 0.5 tiebreaks is around 30 percent. Since the bet365 app offers odds of 4.00 for this, implying a probability of exactly 25 percent, there is definitely value to be found in this small side bet.
Jannik Sinner – Andrey Rublev Head-to-Head Record
Head to Head: 7:3
Ten matches have taken place between the two players so far, and with seven wins, Jannik Sinner leads the head-to-head record.
While the matchup was certainly competitive in the past, the Italian flexed his muscles in their most recent encounter in the Round of 16 at the 2025 French Open, dispatching Andrey Rublev in quick succession in three sets (6-1, 6-3, and 6-4).
Jannik Sinner – Andrey Rublev Tip
Although the prediction that Andrey Rublev can force a tiebreak against Jannik Sinner in at least one set certainly holds value, our main recommendation is for another clear victory by the world No. 1. The Sextner has won 31 consecutive matches at the Masters level and has been virtually unstoppable of late. It’s hard to imagine that he would suddenly start faltering at the most important tennis tournament in his home country, where he has stormed into the quarterfinals with three straight 2-0 victories.
Although Bet-at-home is offering odds of just 1.15 for Jannik Sinner to beat Andrey Rublev 2-0, there is value in this bet despite the comparatively low potential payout. After all, the Italian won 33 of his 35 singles matches in 2026 alone—that’s 94.3 percent of all his matches.
