Will the Gunners pull ahead in the title race?
Although Manchester City closed the gap to just two points behind the Gunners with a 3-0 win over Crystal Palace on Wednesday night, but if Arsenal beat Burnley at home, the pressure would clearly shift back to the Sky Blues, who—just three days after their FA Cup final against Chelsea FC—must face AFC Bournemouth in the Premier League, a team that has gone 15 league games without a loss.
Thus, the Gunners’ first league title in 22 years is looking increasingly likely. Unless, that is, Arsenal FC stumbles against the Clarets of all teams—though with just 21 points from 36 league games, the Clarets have long since been relegated.
A turnaround has failed to materialize at Burnley FC even under interim manager Mike Jackson, although they did manage a 2-2 draw at home last weekend against Europa League finalist Aston Villa. Nevertheless, the Clarets have won only one of their last 27 Premier League matches (eight draws, 18 losses) and, with just 37 goals scored, have also lacked the necessary offensive punch.
In particular, the North Londoners’ defensive solidity should make the difference in this clash between the league leaders and the second-to-last team in the standings. Arsenal won 16 Premier League games in the 2025/26 season without conceding a goal, which is the highest total in the league. However, the Gunners rarely put on a goal-scoring spectacle in those matches. Rather, seven of those 16 clean-sheet victories were narrow 1-0 wins.
Arsenal – Burnley Head-to-Head Record
Head to Head: 58 – 24 – 34
A total of 116 matches have been played between the two teams so far, and with 58 wins, Arsenal FC clearly leads the head-to-head record.
The Gunners are currently unbeaten in their last six competitive matches against the Clarets (four wins, two draws) and have lost only one of their last 19 Premier League meetings with the club from East Lancashire (14 wins, four draws).
Arsenal – Burnley Prediction
From momentum to head-to-head records to the very clear standings, practically everything points to the Gunners securing a home win against Burnley on Monday evening at the Emirates Stadium, which would temporarily restore their five-point lead over Manchester City.
Should the Sky Blues then slip up against AFC Bournemouth—who have been unbeaten in their last 15 Premier League matches—the Londoners could be celebrating their first championship in 22 years from the comfort of their couches as early as Tuesday evening.
Although the Gunners have had their share of lucky wins recently, such as the controversial 1-0 victory at West Ham United, we don’t expect them to have any trouble against the Clarets, who have already been relegated. Instead, we expect Mikel Arteta’s defensive specialists to secure a low-scoring shutout victory.
