Will the Wolves secure their place in the league?
No decisive result came on Thursday evening, as both teams played to a scoreless draw at the Volkswagen Arena. If Paderborn’s home win against Wolfsburg comes through, SCP would be guaranteed a return to the top tier of German soccer. However, the Blue-Blacks have lost all three of their previous competitive home matches against the Wolves, who also secured their relegation spot by remaining unbeaten in their final three Bundesliga away matches of the 2025/26 season (two wins, one draw).
Against this backdrop, our prediction for the Paderborn vs. Wolfsburg match leans toward the Lower Saxony side avoiding relegation, which would further shift the balance in the recently very one-sided relegation playoffs in favor of the Bundesliga club. In twelve of the last 13 relegation playoffs, the third-place team in the 2. Bundesliga failed to prevail over the 16th-place Bundesliga team after the two-legged series.
It was nevertheless striking how little the VfL’s creative unit, led by Christian Eriksen, could come up with on Thursday evening against a very deep-lying Paderborn side. Despite having the advantage in possession and a 17-2 shot count, the Lower Saxons remained goalless in front of their home crowd. Since we don’t expect SCP—who nearly pulled off a somewhat flattering “lucky punch” thanks to Filip Bilbija—to deviate from their defensive strategy in the second leg, we don’t anticipate a goal fest this time either. We therefore recommend the combined bet on Double Chance X2 with under 3.5 goals.
Another viable bet is that the Wolves will avoid relegation. For VfL to prevail against SCP either in regulation time, extra time, or a penalty shootout, Bet-at-home is offering odds of 1.53 on Paderborn vs. Wolfsburg.
On the other hand, anyone who believes the second-division side might even win the return leg at the Home-Deluxe-Arena could also bet neutrally on under 2.5 goals and thus keep all options open. In the Betano app, the odds for this in the Paderborn vs. Wolfsburg match are listed at 1.83.
Paderborn – Statistics & Current Form
SC Paderborn was on track for a return to the Bundesliga for a long time before dropping too many points against direct rivals in the final stretch of the 2025/26 season. After four league games without a win against Hannover (1-1), Schalke (2-3), Elversberg (1-5), and Karlsruhe (2-2), they needed not only a hard-fought 2-0 away win against the strong SV Darmstadt on the final matchday but also a helping hand from Middle Franconia. Only because Nuremberg managed a 3-3 draw in Hannover did SCP still climb to third place.
The 0-0 draw at the Volkswagen Arena was actually a good result, as the East Westphalians now have a great chance to secure their ticket to the Bundesliga with a home win in front of their own fans. However, the odds clearly don’t favor Paderborn against Wolfsburg.
Has Paderborn lost its momentum?
Ralf Kettemann’s team’s underdog status is also due in part to their mixed home record. In front of their home crowd, they suffered four defeats in 2025/26—that’s one more loss than the other two promoted teams, Schalke (one) and Elversberg (two), combined. Furthermore, the Blue-Blacks failed to win any of their last two home games of the 2025/26 season (one draw, one loss).
So there isn’t much momentum left either. Including the 0-0 draw from the first leg in Wolfsburg, SCP has won just one of its last six games (three draws, two losses)—and in that very 2-0 win in Darmstadt, the East Westphalians had to weather several periods of weakness and benefited, among other things, from the South Hessians’ profusion of missed chances, which hit the woodwork twice and were thwarted numerous times by the brilliant Dennis Seimen.
Wolfsburg – Stats & Current Form
VfL Wolfsburg looked like a sure bet for relegation during a historically weak second half of the season, especially after the second coaching change of the season initially seemed to fizzle out. Week by week, Dieter Hecking stabilized the ensemble of highly decorated individualists who simply refused to function as a team—until they finally did. Thanks in part to a strong haul of eight out of a possible 15 points from the last five matchdays, the 2009 German champions managed to secure a relegation playoff spot.
In the first leg, despite having more of the play, a home win eluded them. But if the tip for an away win by the Green-Whites against Wolfsburg at Paderborn comes through, the team would indeed have gotten off lightly once again.
Wolfsburg is remarkably strong on the road
The main factor pointing to Wolfsburg’s survival is the fact that VfL fared significantly better on the road in 2025/26 than at home. In the Bundesliga away table, the Lower Saxony side even holds a single-digit position (ninth place) and has earned an impressive 19 points from 17 away games. Seven of the eight points from their last five league matches were also earned on the road, with the two wins at Union Berlin (2-1) and FC St. Pauli (3-1) in particular preventing direct relegation.
History also gives the Lower Saxony side cause for optimism:
Not only has VfL won all three of its away matches in Paderborn to date, but in twelve of the last 13 relegation playoffs, the Bundesliga side has ultimately prevailed. And even in the sole exception—when Union Berlin defeated VfB Stuttgart after two draws due to the now-abolished away goals rule—it was a result that would only have sent the match into extra time this time around.
Paderborn – Wolfsburg Head-to-Head Record
Head to Head: 0 – 3 – 3
The first leg of the relegation playoff was only the sixth competitive match between the two teams, and with the scoreless draw, VfL Wolfsburg remained unbeaten in their sixth match against SC Paderborn. It is interesting to note that all three of the Lower Saxony side’s home games against SC Paderborn have ended in draws, while SCP has lost all three of its previous competitive matches at home against the Wolves.
Paderborn – Wolfsburg Prediction
Generally speaking, our prediction for Paderborn vs. Wolfsburg leans toward the Wolves staying in the league, as they simply have a much stronger squad with stars like Christian Eriksen, Mohamed Amoura, and Konstantinos Koulierakis than SCP, who nevertheless defended strongly as a unit in the first leg.
It should be noted, however, that VfL secured crucial away points in the final stretch of the Bundesliga season and, against a team with a similar tactical approach—namely FC St. Pauli—averted direct relegation and secured a spot in the relegation playoff with a convincing 3-1 away win on Matchday 34.
The Blue-Blacks, on the other hand, missed out on direct promotion partly because they failed to win any of their final two second-division home games (one draw, one loss). In general, SCP faltered down the stretch, winning just one of their last six games (three draws, two losses). Nevertheless, we don’t expect a goal fest at the Home-Deluxe-Arena. The match combo of Double Chance X2 with under 3.5 goals offers us significant value.
