Two historic clubs on the brink of major upheaval
In terms of the standings, the only team still with something to play for on the final matchday of La Liga is the visiting side from the Basque Country. Currently sitting in 12th place, they could theoretically climb as high as seventh with the best-case scenario and jump on the train to Europe.
However, for that to happen, not only would the bet on an away win for the Leones at the Bernabéu in Real Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao have to pay off, but it would also require some downright absurd results in many other stadiums. Everything therefore suggests that Ernesto Valverde, who will officially end his coaching career this weekend, will leave his successor, Edin Terzic, with a team that can fully focus on domestic duties next season.
But it’s not just in the Basque Country that this will bring about a shake-up. Real Madrid is also facing drastic changes after one scandal after another in recent months within the success-spoiled team, which went without a title this season and had to settle for second place.
The ink isn’t dry on the contract yet, but all signs point to José Mourinho returning to the Blancos to take over the shambles Álvaro Arbeloa is leaving behind. Reportedly, the Royals are even working on prying Rodri—the eccentric Portuguese manager’s desired player—away from Manchester City.
All of this is overshadowing the actual soccer these days. Given the overall very lackluster season that Athletic Bilbao has had, however, we would bet—despite the Blancos’ crisis—on the Real Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao prediction that Real Madrid will bid farewell to a generally lackluster 2025/26 season with a home win. After all, the Basques have lost eleven of their 18 La Liga away games in 2025/26 (four wins, three draws), leaving them in a sobering 16th place in the away table.
However, a certain fatigue was already noticeable in Real Madrid’s recent matches. Most recently, there were very narrow shutout victories against Real Oviedo (2-0) and Sevilla (1-0), which clearly showed how much the team is longing to put the season behind them. Their enthusiasm for the game is at an all-time low. So, we probably won’t see a tactical treat at the Bernabéu on Saturday night.
Real Madrid – Athletic Bilbao Head-to-Head Record
Head to Head: 125 – 45 – 79
A total of 249 matches have been played between the two teams so far, and with 125 wins, Real Madrid clearly leads the head-to-head record. The Blancos have lost only one of their last 21 La Liga matches against Athletic Bilbao (15 wins, five draws) and won both their last away match against the Leones 3-0 and their most recent home match 1-0.
Real Madrid – Athletic Bilbao Prediction
According to the top bookmakers, the betting odds for Real Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao are heavily in favor of the Blancos, which is linked to the Basques’ slump in form; having secured only seven out of a possible 24 points from their last eight league matches, they have squandered their strong position for a European spot and would need nothing short of a major football miracle in their final competitive match under Ernesto Valverde to return to the top seven.
The Leones have squandered their chances mostly on the road, where they lost 11 of their 18 La Liga away games in the 2025/26 season. Not a good starting point, then, for the trip to the Bernabéu, where Athletic Club has traditionally had little to gain anyway.
Although there is nothing left at stake for the Merengues and the mood in the team has hit a new low following the recent clash between Tchouaméni and Valverde, our prediction for Real Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao is a home win for the Blancos, who have recently found that a single brilliant move by one of their many world-class stars has usually been enough to win their matches.
