Next U.S. Celebration in Seattle?
The two winners from the first matchday in Group D will face off this coming Friday in my USA vs. Australia prediction. One thing is already certain: the winner of this match will continue to play a role in World Cup betting and odds beyond the group stage. Additionally, I’ll state one thing upfront in my USA vs. Australia forecast: I expect it to be the US boys.
I think a US victory is likely in the upcoming match, with both teams scoring—just as they did in the US’s 2-1 win in last fall’s friendly. This is reflected accordingly in my top picks for this match.
Unlike the bookmakers, I expect a fast-paced match with several goals at Seattle Stadium. Since the bookies see it differently—likely due to the expected defensive style of play from the team from Down Under—I see value in betting on multiple goals and both teams scoring in this match.
Incidentally, the data models also support this assessment, projecting 1.7 expected goals for the U.S., while the Aussies are projected to have only 0.71 in this category. However, I’m going to venture to disagree with the data predictions.
Since the U.S. has a weakness in defense, I fully believe Tony Popovic’s team is capable of scoring again in their second group stage match. Given the offensive strength of their upcoming opponent this Friday, however, the Socceroos are unlikely to keep a clean sheet this time around, which is why I also consider a bet on the U.S. to score over 1.5 goals to be an interesting option for this match, in addition to the three top picks.
USA vs. Australia AI Prediction
The bookmakers’ odds for a home win are almost exactly in line with our AI’s USA vs. Australia prediction. There’s also no value in betting on an upset win by the Australians. In fact, the AI calculates an even lower probability for this outcome than the bookmakers’ odds (15.5% compared to 18.5% in the bookmakers’ odds).
Additionally, the USA vs. Australia AI prediction sees value in betting that neither team will score this coming Friday. While Betano Sports Betting offers odds of 1.80 for this—corresponding to a probability of just over 55%—the AI calculates a probability of 59.3% for this bet, which corresponds to fair odds of about 1.68.
USA – Statistics & Current Form
A dream start for World Cup host the USA in its 23rd World Cup finals appearance. With a surprisingly decisive 4-1 victory, the Soccer Boys sent Paraguay packing in their opening match. And if my USA vs. Australia prediction—backed by a World Cup betting bonus—holds true, there will be another U.S. celebration in Seattle this coming Friday.
Will the U.S. secure a spot in the Round of 16 as early as Friday?
Admittedly, a look at the raw statistics from the opening match against Paraguay doesn’t quite reflect the Americans’ strong performance; they played like a team unleashed, especially in the first half. Mauricio Pochettino’s team took a total of six shots, four of which found the back of Paraguay’s net. This is also reflected in the Americans’ xG (expected goals) for this match, which stood at “just” 1.42 in the opener.
It hardly gets any more efficient than that. In this first appearance, the Americans already clearly demonstrated their potential, especially on offense. Even though I still don’t count Pochettino’s squad among the World Cup favorites, the U.S. has some truly exceptional players up front who can also cause the Australians serious trouble.
In addition to Christian Pulisic, known from the Bundesliga, and Ricardo Pepi of PSV Eindhoven, Monaco striker Folarin Balogun deserves special mention here. In any case, I’ve once again listed him—who, along with Christian Pulisic, is the most expensive player on the U.S. roster—as a potential goal-scorer in my USA vs. Australia prediction.
Australia – Stats & Current Form
Even though Australia isn’t a World Cup newcomer, the Aussies showed in their opening match against Turkey that they’re no pushovers. Since 2006, Tony Popovic’s team has qualified for every World Cup finals, but has never made it past the Round of 16.
Will Australia surprise us again?
In the opening match, the team from Down Under was, just as in my USA vs. Australia prediction—which I prefer to bet on using a no-deposit World Cup free bet—merely the underdog against Turkey. However, it became clear as the match progressed that Popovic’s squad is quite comfortable in this role. Although Turkey had 72% possession, they were unable to break through the Socceroos’ defensive wall or get past the brilliant goalkeeper Beach.
Moreover, with an xG of 1.18 in this match, Australia remained dangerous on the counterattack throughout. The U.S. will also have to adjust to facing a team that once again plays disciplined, deep defense this coming Friday. It’s likely to be a test of patience for the World Cup hosts—especially if the Australians take the lead, as they did in their opening match.
Nevertheless, in my USA vs. Australia prediction, I expect the higher quality on the field to narrowly prevail this time. Especially since the Americans’ home-field advantage should not be underestimated.
USA – Australia Head-to-Head Record
The two nations have faced each other a total of four times so far, most recently last October. The U.S. team won that match 2–1. The Americans even won the previous encounter in 2010 by a score of 3–1. Of course, that result isn’t particularly relevant to the current situation.
Nor do the two matchups from the 1990s, one of which Australia won and the other ended in a draw. In the upcoming match, however, the United States is the favorite according to the USA vs. Australia betting odds.
USA vs. Australia Prediction
Before the USA’s opening match against Paraguay, quite a few experts assumed that, given the South Americans’ defensive strength, there would be few goals in the game. Think again! The USA demonstrated their offensive potential, just as they had in the friendly against Germany a few days ago.
Nevertheless, the Stars and Stripes’ weak spot remains their own defense. It seems the Pochettino-led team simply can’t keep a clean sheet these days. Their last clean sheet came last September against Japan. Since then, in eight out of nine matches, the bet on both teams scoring in U.S. international matches would have paid off.
That’s why I definitely see potential and value in the high odds that both teams will score again this coming Friday. Especially since the supposed underdog, Australia, is heading into the match in Seattle with their heads held high after their surprising opening-match victory over Turkey.
And even though I expect the Socceroos to play extremely defensively once again, I anticipate that goals will be scored this coming Friday in Seattle. In any case, I think the equally high odds for more than two goals—maybe even more than three—during the match are worth betting on in this game, where I’m predicting a 2-1 or 3-1 victory for the Soccer Boys.
