Will Sascha heal a six-year-old trauma?
Almost exactly six years to the day, Alexander Zverev reached his first Grand Slam final. In the US Open final, the title was within his grasp when he was already leading Dominic Thiem 2–0. But then came the collapse that has haunted the German for years. He ended up losing the match 2–3.
Now, however, Sascha is a Grand Slam champion—he won the 2026 French Open—and heads into this match as the favorite with a newfound confidence, which is why our Alexander Zverev vs. Ben Shelton prediction also calls for the German to win the title. And yet it should be clear that for one of the physically strongest players on the ATP Tour, this final will be decided first and foremost by his mental game.
There are plenty of reasons for Sascha to not let any fear of failure creep in at all. He is an Olympic champion, a two-time world champion, and, since May 2026, a Grand Slam champion as well. Furthermore, he is now facing an opponent whom he has beaten in all five of their previous meetings and against whom he has won ten consecutive sets.
Nevertheless, the Alexander Zverev vs. Ben Shelton prediction must not overlook the fact that “Big Ben” knocked Carlos Alcaraz out of the tournament in the quarterfinals. The American also has the Big Apple crowd behind him, which is eager for the first American US Open champion in 23 years (Andy Roddick, 2003). However, a victory by Sascha—who we’re betting on—would also be historic. The last German to win the US Open was Boris Becker (1989).
Sascha didn’t leave anything to chance in the semifinals against Karen Khachanov either, securing a straight-sets 3-0 victory. After the German, who entered the tournament in New York City as the top seed, initially wobbled twice and managed only two narrow 3-2 victories in marathon matches during the first week of the tournament, he went on to record four straight clean 3-0 wins. Things weren’t quite as easy for his 23-year-old challenger, who nevertheless demonstrated his ability to stage comebacks against fellow American Frances Tiafoe, coming back from a 0-1 set deficit to win 3-1 in 3 hours and 18 minutes. He had previously lost the first set against both Carlos Alcaraz and Tallon Griekspoor.
Alexander Zverev – Ben Shelton Head-to-Head Record
Head-to-Head: 5-0
The two players have faced each other five times so far, and in all five cases, Alexander Zverev ultimately prevailed over the American—most recently in the group stage of the 2025 ATP Finals with a 2-0 victory (6-3, 7-6). In fact, the German has dropped only a single set against Ben Shelton in all five meetings—namely, the very first one in Cincinnati in 2024. This means Sascha has also won the last ten sets in a row against Big Ben.
Alexander Zverev – Ben Shelton Prediction
On paper, Ben Shelton looks like the kind of final opponent any fan would want to see Alexander Zverev face. The German has won the last ten sets in a row against the 23-year-old and holds a commanding 5-0 lead in their head-to-head record. And yet, Big Ben has a chance to become the first American to win the U.S. Open in 23 years.
He’s guaranteed to have the crowd behind him, which could very well be a factor. On top of that, the world No. 9 has made a leap forward, already winning four titles in 2026 and even successfully defending his title at the Masters tournament in Canada. His victory over top favorite Carlos Alcaraz at the US Open didn’t come entirely out of the blue, either.
And yet, Sascha has defied all odds and reached the final at Flushing Meadows in very convincing fashion, having won his last four matches in straight sets, 3-0. The German has seemed more mature ever since his French Open title anyway. We consider the risk that the “Thiem trauma” and fear of failure will resurface—and that, six years after his most bitter defeat, he will once again fall short due to his own shortcomings—to be rather low.
