Will Bayern dominate the second leg as well?

Against virtually any other opponent in the world, thanks to the 2-1 away win in the first leg, one would already say that FC Bayern has one foot and a half in the next round. The only exception, however, is Real Madrid! For reasons that are difficult to explain rationally, the Royals are repeatedly able to rise above themselves in the Champions League and show their very best side.

Although all the arguments in favor of a Bayern vs. Real Madrid tip favor the German record champions ahead of Wednesday night’s quarterfinal second leg at the Allianz Arena, it would be reckless to write off the 15-time winners of the world’s most prestigious club competition too soon.

It is also clear, however, that the impressions from the first leg a week ago, as well as the fundamentally contrasting form curves of both teams, inevitably lead the most popular bookmakers on the market to issue a clear prediction in favor of Kompany’s side ahead of the Bayern vs. Real Madrid clash. No wonder, as this marks the 23rd time FCB has won a first leg in the Champions League knockout stage on the road. In 21 of the previous 22 instances, they ultimately advanced to the next round.

Apart from that, Kane, Kimmich, Neuer, and the rest of the squad currently seem incredibly focused. They have won 13 of their last 15 competitive matches. Over the weekend, the “Bestia Negra” won 5-0 at FC St. Pauli. In contrast, the Galácticos had to settle for a disappointing 1-1 draw against Girona on Friday, a result that has allowed FC Barcelona to pull definitively ahead in the La Liga standings.

Bayern vs. Real Madrid AI Prediction

Clearly, artificial intelligence is also convinced that the Madrid side can once again seriously challenge Bayern for a spot in the semifinals. At least, based on value criteria, the Bayern vs. Real Madrid AI prediction leans toward an away win for the Spaniards. Instead of what the AI considers a fair odds of 3.80 for a visiting win, you can actually get 4.75 at bet365.

Bayern – Stats & Current Form

FC Bayern has had a formidable season so far. In the Bundesliga, defending the title has been a mere formality for several weeks now. As a semifinalist in the DFB Cup, the Munich side has every chance of securing the domestic double, and the FCB has also established itself internationally.

Part of the reason for this was their strong performance last Tuesday at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu. In Madrid, the German record champions posted a very high xG value of 2.92 and, in part because of this, celebrated a well-deserved 2-1 victory that could have been even more lopsided. However, due to the goal conceded, nerves are certainly on edge around Säbener Straße, so I once again expect a thoroughly focused, serious, and consequently dominant performance at the Allianz Arena.

Bayern also wants to put its own stamp on the second leg

Another factor supporting my preferred Bayern vs. Real Madrid prediction in favor of the home team is the fact that the Bavarians are playing at home. The “Bestia Negra” has lost just one of their past 28 Champions League home games (22-5-1). This season, coach Vincent Kompany’s team has celebrated five wins in five Champions League home matches, with a combined score of 16-3! Overall, they have suffered just one defeat in eleven Champions League matches—a 1-3 loss to Arsenal FC. The remaining ten matches, however, were all won, seven of them by a margin of at least two goals.

Munich would certainly be well advised to take control of the game once again on Wednesday evening. Strong control, minimal turnovers, and solid defensive organization are the keys to success. Up front, the attack will often pose a threat anyway thanks to the outstanding individual talents of Kane, Gnabry, Diaz, and Olise. Olise, in particular, literally left Real’s left-back Carreras dizzy in the first leg.

Real Madrid – Statistics & Current Form

With 33 semifinal appearances in the UEFA Champions League and its predecessor competitions, Real Madrid remains the benchmark. However, if—as expected—the odds tip in favor of Bayern’s victory over Real Madrid on Wednesday night, the Galácticos would miss the semifinals for the second consecutive year—and thus as often as in the previous 14 (!) years.

But the star-studded squad from the Spanish capital still has hope of turning things around. Nevertheless, this hope rests primarily on their individual talents: Kylian Mbappé, Vini Jr., Fede Valverde, Arda Güler, and company. As a team, Arbeloa’s squad has rarely been able to deliver a convincing performance of 100% recently. They have failed to win three competitive matches in a row. In addition to the home loss to Bayern, the Madrid side also managed to secure just one point from their last two league matches. The championship is now a distant prospect. A title-less year looms for the heavyweight.

Everything points against Real Madrid – almost everything…

There are many areas of concern for the Royals at the moment. Goalkeeper Courtois, whose saves were indispensable in helping the Spaniards reach the quarterfinals during the playoffs and the round of 16, is out due to injury. The two fullbacks, Carreras and Alexander-Arnold, excel offensively but are far too vulnerable defensively. In central midfield, a heavy burden of responsibility rests on 18-year-old Thiago Pitarch. Tchouameni is suspended; Bellingham is still far from his old self after a long injury layoff.

On top of that, coach Alvaro Arbeloa must be afraid of even being noticed or seen when compared to Vincent Kompany. Alonso’s successor lacks not only experience but also a clear style or at least an idea of how he intends to shape a functioning collective out of this capricious group of egoists. His replacement at the end of the season seems to have already been decided internally.

At least one statistic offers a glimmer of hope: Since the start of the 2013/14 season, no other team in world soccer has celebrated more away wins at the Allianz Arena than Real Madrid (three). Even Borussia Dortmund and Gladbach (three) have not celebrated more victories despite 13 and 17 attempts, respectively. Real fans also draw confidence from the team’s ability—mentioned earlier in the introduction—to produce a world-class performance out of nowhere and without warning. Usually when the floodlights come on during the week and the Champions League anthem rings out…

Bayern – Real Madrid Head-to-Head / H2H Record

Up until the first leg, Real Madrid had gone nine consecutive matches unbeaten against Bayern. The Galacticos even won seven of those nine encounters (two draws). A week ago, however, there was a sort of changing of the guard. Bayern delivered a strong away performance in Spain and celebrated a well-deserved 2-1 victory.

Nevertheless, there is still plenty of work to be done in Wednesday night’s second leg. After all, Madrid have remained unbeaten in their last four visits to Munich, winning three of those four matches. In my view, however, it is more likely that FCB will win both legs against their long-time rivals for the first time since the 2000/01 Champions League semifinals—and only the second time ever. By the way: In 2001, Munich went on to lift the Champions League trophy. A good omen?

Bayern – Real Madrid Prediction

Kylian Mbappé and Vini Jr. – Real’s hopes of advancing to the semifinals hinge entirely on these two names. While the Brazilian repeatedly created danger behind the Munich defense with his runs into the box, French World Player of the Year Mbappé could become the first player in Champions League history to score ten away goals in a single season.

However, the individualists from the Spanish capital are up against what many consider the best club team in the world right now. The individual cogs in Kompany’s team mesh perfectly. Confidence is at a boiling point, and based on last week’s performance, I see no other recommendation than to bet on another Bayern victory. To boost the odds, you can combine the home win with both teams to score and thus grab a 2.45 in the Bet-at-home app.

Former Bayern double-winning coach Felix Magath is also certain that his former club will make it to the semifinals. Ultimately, I’m going with the Bayern vs. Real Madrid tip for a home win and risking a notional stake of six units at 1.56. At the same time, I wouldn’t be surprised if the men from the Isar pull off an even more convincing victory than last Tuesday!