Will Freiburg secure a spot in the semifinals?
SC Freiburg opened the door to the Europa League semifinals wide last Thursday with a convincing 3-0 home win over Celta Vigo. However, the Breisgauers still need to survive the tricky away match in Galicia. Basically, the prediction for Celta Vigo vs. Freiburg—that SC Freiburg will advance to the semifinals—looks promising.
It could still be a close call, though, because whenever the Celestes have played the second leg of a knockout round in a UEFA competition at home, their fans have had reason to celebrate. The Célticos are unbeaten in their last 13 such home games (12 wins, one draw).
On top of that, despite a strong run in the Europa League, the Black Forest side has consistently struggled, especially on the road. In seven of their last eight away matches in knockout rounds of UEFA competitions, the Breisgau team failed to score. They have also suffered eight away losses in the Bundesliga. Although the Sport-Club won their dress rehearsal on Sunday with a 1-0 victory over Conference League quarterfinalist Mainz 05, it could still be a nail-biter at the Estadio Municipal de Balaídos. However, since SCF could continue to play on the counterattack even if they fall behind 0-1 and wouldn’t have to open up the game, there’s a strong case for a home win by the Celestes, regardless of whether it’s enough for a comeback or not.
Admittedly, the Galicians completely botched their dress rehearsal, suffering a 0-3 home defeat on Sunday against bottom-of-the-table Real Oviedo. However, this is also due to the fact that coach Claudio Giráldez rested nearly the entire starting lineup. This, in turn, means that Óscar Mingueza, Borja Iglesias, and Iago Aspas are now fresh for the second leg. The latter, in particular—the captain and a mainstay of the team—played a decisive role in the Galicians reaching the quarterfinals with six goal contributions.
Celta Vigo – Freiburg Head-to-Head Record
Head to Head: 0 – 0 – 1
Last Thursday’s first leg was the first-ever international competitive match between the two teams.
Thanks to their 3-0 home win, SC Freiburg now leads the head-to-head record. Celta Vigo is hosting a Bundesliga team for the first time since March 2007. Back then, the Galicians lost 0-1 to SV Werder Bremen.
Celta Vigo – Freiburg Prediction
Basically, our prediction for Celta Vigo vs. Freiburg is that the Black Forest team will qualify for the semifinals, where they would then face the winner of the match between Betis Sevilla and Braga—and certainly have a chance to reach the grand final. However, we don’t expect the away trip to Galicia to be a walk in the park for Freiburg, who haven’t always been particularly consistent or clinical on the road.
The Celestes haven’t written off the Europa League just yet. Coach Giráldez rested virtually all of his key players in La Liga during the surprising 0-3 loss to bottom-of-the-table Real Oviedo in preparation for the second leg, so it’s quite likely that the Galicians will leave no stone unturned to erase the three-goal deficit. We don’t think a comeback is overly likely. However, we do believe the Célticos will secure a home win after regular time.
