Check it out, Germany—this is how it’s done!

For anyone who still needed solid proof of why France has long been considered the top contender among all remaining teams to answer the question “Who will be the 2026 World Cup champion?”, that proof was delivered in the Equipe Tricolore’s first knockout match. Against Sweden, the French put on a real fireworks display, creating a multitude of top-notch scoring chances and ultimately winning 3–0—though the score could definitely have been much higher. With this form—and especially if individual stars like Mbappé, Olise, and Dembélé continue to bring their A-game to the field—it will be very difficult to prevent the two-time world champions from winning their third title.

But what can Paraguay—the team that defeated Germany—actually accomplish? In my opinion, not much, because, to be honest, the South Americans’ advancement wasn’t necessarily due to a particularly strong performance by the “Albirroja,” but rather stemmed from the DFB team’s failure.

Nevertheless, Coach Gustavo Alfaro’s men are naturally looking forward to this bonus match with great anticipation, even though they’re expected to be clearly outmatched. That’s why my recommendation is to primarily bet on the France vs. Paraguay odds with an (Asian) handicap in favor of Deschamps’ squad.

Paraguay vs. France AI Prediction

The AI paints a slightly different picture. Although the AI predicts clear French dominance with an xG of 2.17 to 0.50, the calculated probability of victory—at 76.6%—is noticeably lower than the nearly 85% implied by the bookmakers. Combined with the xG difference of 1.67 goals, the Paraguay vs. France AI prediction therefore suggests there is no value in betting on a decisive victory by the heavy favorite.

Paraguay – Statistics & Current Form

Paraguay delivered the biggest upset of the knockout stage so far with its 1-0 victory over Germany. The key to success was a passionate defensive performance, paired with maximum efficiency in front of the opponent’s goal. Offensively, however, the South Americans were, to be honest, completely harmless for long stretches and focused almost exclusively on defending.

Against France, the question now is whether this approach can work again. After all, defending a 1-0 lead—as they did against the German national team—is significantly easier than defending a 0-1 deficit—and it is precisely this scenario that is more likely to occur against the offensively strong French team.

Can Paraguay rise to the occasion once again?

A look at the numbers underscores this picture. Paraguay has scored just three goals so far in this World Cup; in the entire World Cup qualifying campaign, they managed only 14 goals in ten games. At the same time, the team has conceded just one goal in their last three matches, which impressively demonstrates their defensive stability. Confidence and momentum are undoubtedly there following the upset against Germany. Psychologically, however, such an emotional high is often followed by a certain disillusionment—especially against an opponent that is in a completely different league in terms of quality.

These insights also suggest some interesting betting strategies. I can well imagine that the “Guaraníes” will once again fail to score this time, as their offense has rarely posed a real threat so far. That said, Betano is offering odds of 1.55 as the maximum for this outcome.

It’s also conceivable, however, that the South Americans will once again use their physical and annoying style of play to throw the favorites off their rhythm. As the game progresses, however, the pressure from the French should increase, which is why there’s a strong case to be made that more goals will be scored in the second half than before the break.

France – Statistics & Current Form

France impressively demonstrated in its commanding victory over Sweden why the Équipe Tricolore is considered by many to be the top favorite to win the World Cup title. Kylian Mbappé and Michael Olise, in particular, dominated the match at will and, with a bit more efficiency, could even have secured a 5-0 or 6-0 victory. Several goals were also absolute highlights.

Almost more important than the on-field performance, however, was the scene off the field: the public show of solidarity between Mbappé and national team coach Didier Deschamps sends a strong signal. In the past, their relationship wasn’t always harmonious, but now France appears to be a united team—and is therefore even harder to beat.

France has dominated this World Cup tournament so far

The statistics from this World Cup also speak for themselves. France has won all four of its matches, boasts an impressive goal difference of 13–2, and has scored at least three goals in every game. Moreover, all of their victories have come by a comfortable margin; in fact, “Les Bleus” have won their last three matches by at least a three-goal margin each.

The individual talent clearly speaks in favor of the defending champions. Kylian Mbappé continues to build on his outstanding World Cup record with every tournament, while Michael Olise has already racked up five assists and is currently one of the most creative players in the competition. Unlike Germany, France boasts tremendous depth, plenty of speed, and numerous players who can pull apart even compact defensive blocks with counter-running runs. That’s precisely why Paraguay is likely to face significantly greater difficulties defending its own penalty area; Les Bleus are expected to have a much easier time breaking through the crowded defensive line than the German national team did.

Paraguay – France Head-to-Head Record

While the head-to-head record slightly favors France, a closer look reveals it to be surprisingly even. In five international matches to date, “Les Bleus” have managed only two wins in regulation time. One of those, however, dates back to 1958 and is hardly relevant to today’s situation. The second victory came in a friendly in 2017, which France won convincingly 5–0. The remaining three matches all ended in draws. Paraguay is thus still waiting for its first win against France, but has successfully held its upcoming opponent to a draw on multiple occasions during regulation time.

Paraguay – France Prediction

France enters the quarterfinal against Paraguay as the clear favorite, with nearly every advantage on its side. Didier Deschamps’ team has been in impressive form at this World Cup, winning all four of its matches convincingly and impressing across the board in both play and team spirit.

While Paraguay arrives with plenty of confidence following its surprise victory over Germany, its strength lies primarily in its passionate defensive play. However, this approach is likely to be much harder to execute against the immense quality, speed, and versatility of the French offense.

My bet is for five units. Additionally, potential bets on “Paraguay won’t score” or more goals in the second half also seem interesting. Even if the French team needs a bit of patience early on, their superiority on the field will become increasingly evident as the game progresses. France will show the Germans how they could have easily defeated Paraguay.