Will the player from Kempen get his revenge for Buenos Aires?
After a weak start to the season, Daniel Altmaier is slowly but surely finding his stride, partly because the clay-court season has now begun. In Munich, he defeated Grand Slam champion Marin Cilic in straight sets, 2-0, and he certainly has a shot in Madrid as well, given the tournament draw. Provided, of course, that the 27-year-old clears the first hurdle.
Basically, in the match between Daniel Altmaier and Juan Manuel Cerundolo, we think a win for the world No. 55 from Germany is a viable bet. After all, Francisco Cerundolo’s younger brother is participating in a Masters tournament for only the ninth time in his career and is ranked twelve spots behind the player from Kempen.
Daniel Altmaier certainly has a score to settle with the Argentine, whom he faced earlier this year on clay in Buenos Aires in February. In the first round, the German suffered a bitter 0-2 defeat (2-6, 2-6). Nevertheless, the player from Kempen leads Juan Manuel Cerundolo 3-2 in their head-to-head record. We therefore consider this matchup to be a 50-50 affair. Since the bet on the Kempen native’s victory is already in the value range starting at a 46 percent probability of occurrence, it is accordingly a good bet.
It is striking that the matchups between these two players have mostly been decided by one player being in clearly better form on the day. Both the German and the Argentine have a potent return game, making sets in which both hold all six service games virtually impossible. This also drastically reduces the likelihood of a tiebreak. Only one of the eleven sets played so far between the two players has been decided in a tiebreak.
Daniel Altmaier – Juan Manuel Cerundolo Head-to-Head Record
Head-to-Head: 3:2
The two athletes have faced each other five times already, and in three of those five matches, Daniel Altmaier came out on top. In their most recent encounter, however, Juan Manuel Cerundolo triumphed 2-0 over the Kempen native (6-2, 6-2) at the 2026 Buenos Aires Open on February 10.
Daniel Altmaier – Juan Manuel Cerundolo Prediction
Both players thrive during the clay-court season and certainly have what it takes to give 18th-seeded Luciano Darderi—who would await them in the second round—a tough time at the Madrid Masters. In the match between Daniel Altmaier and Juan Manuel Cerundolo, our prediction leans toward a victory for the German, who simply has significantly more experience than the Argentine when it comes to major tournaments and holds a narrow 3-2 lead in head-to-head matches.
Although the Argentine has lost fewer matches in 2026 and, moreover, soundly defeated the player from Kempen 2-0 in Buenos Aires two and a half months ago, we cannot conclude from this that the 24-year-old is the favorite. Rather, it’s a classic 50-50 situation, in which we’re going with the German from a purely mathematical standpoint.
