Will the Italian’s title dreams be dashed?
Local hero Alexander Zverev missed the 2026 BMW Open final and, with it, the chance to successfully defend his title and become the sole record winner of the clay-court tournament in Munich. This was due to a powerhouse performance by Flavio Cobolli, who burst into tears after his victory on the court.
A close friend of his had passed away on Friday, and he dedicated his victory over the world No. 3 to him. If the Italian can deliver a similar performance in the grand final, the trend in Flavio Cobolli’s match against Ben Shelton points toward a bet on the player from Tuscany winning the tournament.
It’s worth noting that Cobolli not only claimed his first title of 2026 when he triumphed 2-0 over Frances Tiafoe in Acapulco on March 1, 2026, but has also already won a clay-court title in Germany. Last May, the 23-year-old secured the title in Hamburg.
Ben Shelton, on the other hand, won his first major title last fall in Toronto and didn’t give Slovakian qualifier Alex Molcan a chance in the semifinals either, winning 2-0 (6-3, 6-4). If Big Ben also pushes himself to the limit, it could be a high-class final at Munich’s MTTC Iphitos. Our Cobolli vs. Shelton prediction is that the match will go the full distance of three sets.
Alternatively, with Flavio Cobolli facing Ben Shelton at odds of 1.80—which we found on the bet365 app—it’s also a very good bet that at least one set in the 2026 BMW Open final will go to a tiebreak. In the five head-to-head matches that have taken place between the two players so far, without exception, at least one set has gone to a tiebreak.
Flavio Cobolli – Ben Shelton Head-to-Head Record
Head to Head: 2:3
The two athletes have faced each other five times so far, and the matches have always been very competitive. Flavio Cobolli won the first two encounters, before Ben Shelton recorded three consecutive victories against the Italian. The only clay-court match went to the man from Tuscany, with three of the five matches going the full three sets and just under half (six) of the 13 sets played between the two athletes going to a tiebreak.
Flavio Cobolli – Ben Shelton Prediction
Given that the American won four of the six tiebreaks against the Italian and claimed three consecutive matches against the world No. 16, our prediction for the Flavio Cobolli vs. Ben Shelton match leans toward a tournament victory for Big Ben.
What is clear, however, is that the Italian rising star, who just won a singles title in Acapulco, certainly has what it takes to win the BMW Open as well, given the performance he displayed in the semifinals against top favorite Alexander Zverev, where he hit 32 winners.
If both players push themselves to their limits, it could once again be a very close match. Accordingly, the prediction is that the crowd at the MTTC Iphitos is in for a real treat and will witness a worthy final that goes the full three sets.
