Will the “Struffi” fairy tale continue on Church Road?
Jan-Lennard Struff certainly caused the biggest upset of the Wimbledon Championships when he knocked US Open champion Daniil Medvedev out of the tournament in straight sets, 3-0, in the round of 32. Curiously, the 36-year-old German—who likely played the best match of his career—trailed by a break in all three sets—and by two breaks in the third set. But with incredible resilience, Struffi fought back time and again, for example securing a re-break in the third set when Medvedev could have served out the set at 5–2. It is therefore by no means out of the question that the prediction of another victory for the player from Warstein will come true in the match between Hubert Hurkarcz and Jan-Lennard Struff.
Their head-to-head record also shows that Struffi is by no means without a chance. The 36-year-old has won two of his four singles matches against the Pole—including their only meeting on grass. That said, the top bookmakers’ predictions for the Hubert Hurkarcz vs. Jan-Lennard Struff match still favor the Pole, who, with his power and height of 1.96 meters, is a textbook example of a serving giant.
Nevertheless, it’s also worth noting that the man from Wrocław experienced both the best and worst moments of his career on Church Road. In 2021, he reached a Grand Slam semifinal here for the only time in his career. Three years later, he suffered such a severe knee injury here that he has since required two surgeries and dropped to No. 96 in the ATP world rankings.
However, Hubert Hurkacz also experienced a breakthrough with his 3-1 comeback victory over No. 21 seed Tommy Paul in the third round. After falling behind 0-1, the Pole turned the match around in part because he hit 20 aces and won 81 percent of points on his first serve—statistics that had already carried him to the semifinals at Wimbledon in 2021. However, the mentally tough German also possesses an excellent serve, making it very likely that several sets will be decided in tiebreaks.
Hubert Hurkacz – Jan-Lennard Struff Head-to-Head Record
Head-to-Head: 2:2
The two athletes have faced each other four times so far, and the resulting record is even. Jan-Lennard Struff won the first two singles matches against the Pole, before Hubert Hurkacz went on to claim two consecutive victories against the player from Warstein.
Interestingly, the Pole won both hard-court matches. Struffi prevailed on clay as well as in their only singles match on grass to date, at the 2023 ATP Stuttgart tournament.
Hubert Hurkacz – Jan-Lennard Struff Prediction
After the draw, quite a few people surely expected Casper Ruud (11) and Daniil Medvedev (9) to face off in this round of 16 match. Instead, however, their respective conquerors—who have gained plenty of confidence as the tournament has progressed—will now square off.
While Hubert Hurkacz recently displayed once again the qualities that took him to the semifinals of the Wimbledon Championships back in 2021, Jan-Lennard Struff put in one of the strongest performances of his career in the third round against the favored Russian, having previously had to go the full five sets twice against Sebastian Báez and Brandon Nakashima.
Both players will certainly give it their all to force a potential quarterfinal matchup against world No. 1 Jannik Sinner. Given this context, a three-set decision would surprise us, which is why we recommend betting on over 3.5 sets. Bet-at-home is offering odds of 1.53 for the Hubert Hurkarcz vs. Jan-Lennard Struff match, and we’re placing a bet of seven out of ten units on this.
