Will Struffi live up to his role as favorite?
Jan-Lennard Struff has successfully qualified for the Wimbledon Championships for the twelfth time. Most recently, the Warstein native reached the third round twice in a row at the London grass-court tournament. Now, too, in Jan-Lennard Struff’s match against Sebastián Báez, the prediction that the German can avoid an opening-round defeat looks promising.
After all, the Argentine clay-court specialist isn’t a particularly dangerous player on grass. This is also evident in the fact that the world No. 56 has consistently been eliminated in the first round at Wimbledon over the past three years and has won only one of his five singles matches at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club (20 percent).
Admittedly, the 36-year-old German, who now sits at No. 77 in the ATP world rankings, is not an absolute grass-court specialist. At Wimbledon, however, Struffi boasts a win rate more than twice as high (45 percent). In addition, the Warstein native is already in the groove on grass, while his Argentine opponent has continued playing on clay without hesitation following the French Open, which effectively marked the end of the clay-court season.
Sebastián Báez did win a Challenger tournament in the Czech Republic, but he is now facing his first grass-court match of the 2026 season. We therefore expect the German to advance and would even apply a -1.5-set handicap to the player from Warstein in our Jan-Lennard Struff vs. Sebastián Báez prediction.
Generally speaking, the serve should be a major factor on the London grass—and here, Jan-Lennard Struff is simply the far more convincing player, who should rack up numerous free points and easy wins. Sebastián Báez will have to work much harder, and on the fast, low-bouncing grass, he simply doesn’t have the necessary power—let alone the offensive repertoire—due to his comparatively flat stroke and short stature.
Jan-Lennard Struff – Sebastián Báez Head-to-Head Record
Head-to-Head: 1:0
A little over two years ago, the two athletes faced off for the first and only time in a ranked singles match on the ATP Tour. At the Monte Carlo Masters, both players competed on clay, which should have given the Argentine the advantage. Although Sebastián Báez won the first set convincingly, 6-1, Jan-Lennard managed to pull off a 2-1 comeback victory (1-6, 7-6, 6-2).
Jan-Lennard Struff vs. Sebastián Báez Prediction
Given that Struffi has already beaten the Argentine on his preferred surface—clay—the player from Warstein, who has the significantly stronger serve, should have no trouble at all on grass.
Moreover, the Argentine is likely to be significantly less able to showcase his generally strong return game, as the green surface causes the balls to bounce very fast and deep. The fact that Sebastián Báez almost exclusively operates from the baseline when playing defensively makes him even more predictable.
Consequently, it makes sense to predict that the German will overcome this hurdle and advance to the second round at Wimbledon for the third consecutive year. We wouldn’t rule out the possibility that the Warsteiner might drop a set given the length of the match. However, he shouldn’t lose much more than that, which is why we’re betting on the German with a -1.5-set handicap.
