Will the “Comeback King” secure a spot in the semifinals?
A rather curious quarterfinal matchup has emerged at the 2026 French Open, as the No. 105 and No. 104 players in the ATP world rankings face off on Wednesday. We have a corresponding Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi prediction ready in this article, though one aspect stands out in particular: Matteo Arnaldi has already spent 17 hours and 42 minutes on the court. It is the longest playing time recorded for a player on their way to the quarterfinals since the ATP began keeping records in 1991.
Consequently, in the Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi matchup, our prediction leans toward the man who is competing in a clay-court Grand Slam for the first time since the 2021 French Open and has been repeatedly set back by persistent injuries in recent years. Currently ranked No. 105 in the world, Matteo Berrettini is also the lowest-ranked quarterfinalist at the French Open since Igor Andreev in 2007 (ATP 125).
While there is no head-to-head data between the two players yet, the basic performance metrics point to Matteo Berrettini as the favorite, who, following his four wins, now stands at twelve wins to just four losses at Roland Garros. Matteo Arnaldi, on the other hand, reached the quarterfinals of a Grand Slam tournament for the very first time in his career on his 13th attempt and stated after the five-set thriller against Frances Tiafoe—which ended well past 1 a.m. on Tuesday morning—that he doesn’t even know how he’s still able to stand. Since physical stamina could also be a factor, we’re betting on a victory for Matteo Berrettini.
It’s also worth noting that both players have already been involved in quite a few long matches. Matteo Berrettini, for example, had to go the full five sets against Francisco Comensama in the third round and, after trailing 1-2 in sets, only managed to prevail 15-13 in the tiebreak of the deciding set. This makes it all the more interesting to predict that this all-Italian quarterfinal won’t be decided in straight sets.
Matteo Berrettini – Matteo Arnaldi Head-to-Head Record
Head-to-Head: 0-0
Never before have the paths of these two compatriots crossed in a ranked singles match on the ATP Tour. Consequently, there is no “head-to-head” data available that could influence our prediction in any way.
Matteo Berrettini – Matteo Arnaldi Prediction
Comeback king Matteo Berrettini is, of course, the story of the tournament. The returnee, who could only watch the French Open from afar for four consecutive years after reaching the quarterfinals in his last appearance in 2021, certainly benefited from the early defeat of top favorite Jannik Sinner.
Nevertheless, he is the only player in his half of the draw who has previously reached a Grand Slam final (Wimbledon 2021), which certainly gives him a certain mental edge, especially since Matteo Arnaldi is already breaking new ground by reaching the quarterfinals.
On top of that, Matteo Arnaldi has now racked up a total playing time of 17 hours and 42 minutes following his recent five-set thriller against Frances Tiafoe, and could barely stand after the late finish well past 1 a.m. His physical condition could very well tip the scales against Matteo Berrettini.
