Who will secure a ticket to the million-dollar game?
In the best-case scenario, Southampton and Middlesbrough are just 180 minutes away from promotion to the Premier League. However, the team that has only 90 minutes plus potential extra time or a penalty shootout left this season—and will subsequently have to bury its dream of the English top flight for now—will be decided on Tuesday evening at St. Mary’s Stadium. After the 0-0 draw in the first leg, the Saints can be pleased with their slightly better starting position. Nevertheless, the betting odds already available on the 1X2 market underscore that, in the semifinal second leg between Southampton and Middlesbrough for the coveted spot in the final, a bet on the winner carries considerable risk.
The fact that German-licensed bookmakers are tipping the home side as slight favorites is certainly linked to the fact that, in the second-highest division on the island, there has been virtually no other team for weeks or even months marching through the league in better form than the Premier League relegation side from the English south coast. This remarkable run is closely tied to the name Tonda Eckert.
The 33-year-old German head coach, who was actually hired as the U21 coach and previously gained experience in professional soccer primarily as an assistant to Alexander Blessin or Valerien Ismael, took over the head coaching role in early December—initially on an interim basis—and has since posted a sensational record.
In 34 competitive matches, Eckert and his Saints have celebrated 20 wins, drawn nine times, and suffered just five defeats across all competitions. Looking at the past 24 matches in all competitions, the statistics show only one loss—a narrow 1-2 defeat to Manchester City in the FA Cup semifinal. Meanwhile, the last match against an English second-division side was lost on January 17—four months ago! That is precisely why I agree with the bookmakers’ assessment and, ahead of Southampton’s second leg against Middlesbrough, am backing the Saints to reach the final.
However, considering that the visitors from the northeast of the country have also had a strong season so far and haven’t lost an away game since February 16, it might also be an option to switch to the “To Qualify” market.
Southampton – Middlesbrough Head-to-Head Record
The first leg in Middlesbrough took place on Saturday afternoon. Although the home team had the upper hand on the field, created a clear advantage in big chances, and, for example, had an 11-1 corner kick count on the stat sheet, the score was 0-0 after 90 minutes. Logically, the Saints can live with this result better, especially since they lost the away league match 0-4 from their perspective. The first leg at St. Mary’s Stadium ended 1-1. The Saints have now gone five competitive matches without a win against their upcoming opponent. This fact may also push the Southampton vs. Middlesbrough betting odds even higher in favor of Eckert’s team.
Southampton – Middlesbrough Tip
With Tonda Eckert (33, Germany) and Kim Hellberg (38, Sweden), two young foreign coaches face off in the semifinals of the Championship promotion playoffs. The winner of this matchup is also expected to have a very good chance of returning to the top flight in the final. Given their form, I see the Saints as favorites, especially since they haven’t lost to a second-division team in four months and have clearly shifted the momentum of this season in their favor. With home-field advantage on their side, they should make it to the final.
That’s why, ahead of the Southampton vs. Middlesbrough match, I’m betting on the Saints to advance, whether it’s after extra time, a penalty shootout, or regular time.
