Will the Hessians claim their first European title?
The competition has traditionally been dominated by German teams: 28 of the 43 titles won so far in the European League and its two predecessor competitions, the IHF Cup and the EHF Cup, have gone to Bundesliga clubs!
This dominance has only increased in recent years. Looking back to 2004, only the two title holders—Pick Szeged from Hungary and Benfica Lisbon from Portugal—broke through the German stranglehold.
The search is now on for Flensburg’s successor, and the northerners had even won the competition in each of the past two years. However, this streak was ended by Melsungen in the previous semifinal.
It was a surprising success for the North Hessians, as they had lost their last four matches against Flensburg, and David Mandic, a key player in the game, was even shown a red card at one point.
At the same time, they are now in a European final for the first time. This will make them particularly motivated, and against this backdrop, we are predicting that THW Kiel will not lose to MT Melsungen by more than a three-goal margin.
Furthermore, the strong offensive performance by the Hessians in the semifinals, with 37 goals, once again demonstrated MT’s currently highly developed attacking play. Looking back at the last three competitive matches, Melsungen has consistently scored at least 33 goals and has now even reached 37 on two occasions.
Given this, we believe the odds are in favor of the seventh-place team in the current Handball Bundesliga scoring at least 28 goals again in the European League final between Kiel and Melsungen.
THW Kiel – MT Melsungen Head-to-Head Record
The North Germans and the team from the Rothenbach-Halle faced off once already this year in March, with MTM securing a narrow 30:29 home victory. Thanks to this win, the Hessians snapped a previous three-game losing streak.
For the upcoming match between THW Kiel and MT Melsungen, however, the odds are once again pointing toward a victory for the competition’s record champion with four titles—tied with Göppingen and Magdeburg.
THW Kiel – MT Melsungen Prediction
Last year, THW missed the final after a loss in the semifinals against Montpellier, but this time they successfully avenged that defeat with a win over the French side in an identical rematch. However, it was another nail-biter.
Captain Domagoj Duvnak and his team edged out the southern French side coached by Érick Mathé by a razor-thin margin of 29:28 in the semifinals. The victory over the reigning French Cup champions and two-time Champions League winners has naturally boosted Kiel’s confidence.
On the other hand, they are fielding a weakened lineup, as the particularly accurate shooter Elias Ellefsen á Skipagötu is sidelined due to injury. Furthermore, the form of coach Filip Jicha’s team has been generally shaky this season.
In the Bundesliga, Kiel sits in fifth place, just four points ahead of their final opponent. The latter will now be particularly motivated, as the first international title in the club’s history is within reach, and the winner may even qualify for the Champions League!
Given this situation, we expect a close match and, for the clash between Kiel and Melsungen at the Barclays Arena, we’re predicting a narrow THW victory by four or more goals. This prediction is also supported by their last meeting, which the Hessians won by a single goal about two months ago!
