Who will win the Spanish Cup Final?
With Atlético Madrid, only one of the three top Spanish teams has made it to the UEFA Champions League semifinals. While Real Madrid was eliminated by Bayern Munich and FC Barcelona had to throw in the towel despite their away win at Atlético, hopes now rest on coach Diego Simeone’s team.
But before they can focus more intensely on the two matches in the Champions League semifinals against Arsenal, a major title match is on the agenda for Saturday night. In the Copa del Rey final between Atlético Madrid and Real Sociedad, however, my pick is on the supposed underdog.
The fact is that the Basques from San Sebastian, coached by former Bundesliga coach Pellegrino Matarazzo, have been among the most consistent teams in Spain’s top flight for months. Of the 18 competitive matches played so far under the former Hoffenheim coach, RSSS has lost just three. Eleven wins and four draws in the remaining 15 matches make for a clearly positive record, which is also reflected in the standings, among other things.
When the American with Italian and German roots took over “La Real,” they were still in 15th place; he has since led them to seventh place, with their sights set on the Europa League. However, the Blue-Whites could also secure their automatic ticket to Europe’s second-most important club competition on Saturday evening at the Olympic Stadium in Seville. This would require the 2020 Copa del Rey winner from the Basque Country to live up to predictions and claim the title in the Copa del Rey final against Atlético Madrid.
In my opinion, the attractive odds of 2.80 at Interwetten for the “Txuri-urdin” to win the cup in the Atlético Madrid vs. Real Sociedad match also offer value because the capital club might—consciously or subconsciously—be struggling with a few issues at the end of their second consecutive midweek fixture. Not necessarily of a physical nature, but rather from a psychological or mental standpoint following a grueling, intense, and highly emotional Champions League quarterfinal against Barcelona.
Apart from that, it’s worth noting that “Los Colchoneros” have lost five of their last six competitive matches and have also conceded at least two goals in eight of their last ten matches across all competitions. That’s why betting on the underdog to score the first goal of the game might also be an option.
Atlético Madrid – Real Sociedad Head-to-Head Record
Real Sociedad has already faced the Champions League semifinalists from the capital twice this season in La Liga. Matarazzo was on the sidelines both times.
In his debut in early January, the Basques managed a 1-1 draw at home. The return leg at the Metropolitano in early March ended in a 2-3 loss for the Blue-Whites, with the decisive goal for Madrid coming only in the 81st minute after “La Real” had previously held their own against the Rojiblancos.
Interesting fact: RSSS has been waiting for a full victory against Atlético Madrid for nine matches (0-4-6). The Basques’ last win dates back to 2022, but it was celebrated in the Copa del Rey—i.e., in a knockout format—of all places. In any case, the cards will be reshuffled this weekend at a neutral venue in Seville, Andalusia.
Atletico Madrid – Real Sociedad Prediction
On their way to this final, Atletico Madrid nearly fell to FC Barcelona. In the semifinals, the Red-Whites won 4-0 at home, but nearly squandered that lead at Camp Nou (0-3). Ultimately, however, it was enough for their first trip to the final since 2013. In Seville, the Champions League semifinalists are considered strong favorites to win the title.
However, I strongly disagree with the bookmakers’ assessment. Real Sociedad has lost just three of its last 18 competitive matches, has stabilized significantly under Matarazzo, and naturally views this Copa del Rey final as the absolute highlight of the season. That is exactly what Simeone’s team is still missing in the Champions League.
That’s one of the reasons why I see a 50-50 match ahead of us, one that will be decided by the smallest of margins. Why shouldn’t those margins, after two intense weeks for Atlético Madrid, tip in favor of the Basques? Atlético has lost five of its last six competitive matches and conceded at least two goals in 80 percent of all matches over the past nearly two months. For me, that’s reason enough to pick the men from San Sebastian as the cup winners in the match between Atlético Madrid and Real Sociedad—whether after 90 or 120 minutes, or in a penalty shootout.
